09-26-2026, 10:27 PM
models and forecasters have been quite accurate in terms of predicting the path
They were generally accurate plotting the path, but details changed over the previous 3 or 4 days. Early forecasts showed a potential path closer to the island, but the storm stalled and didn’t get as far north which kept the outer rain bands mostly off island. When I checked the local forecast for HPP it started a few days ago showing 8” of rain expected Saturday (today), a day later dropped to 4”, then 2”.
I find government agencies are slow moving, and once they start their response based on a forecast from 3 or 4 days out, they are slow to adjust. Or don’t or won’t adjust. Their messaging continues to focus on that worst case scenario, and schools and businesses respond to that expection.
One year the county sent out volunteers and workers with printed warnings to inform me I had to evacuate from an approaching storm. All of that prep, scheduling, printing, etc occurred 3 or 4 days before landfall. They came to my house 2 days before but by then the storm had dramatically changed course far away from Big Island. No matter how much I pointed out the path had changed they still insisted I had to get out.
They were generally accurate plotting the path, but details changed over the previous 3 or 4 days. Early forecasts showed a potential path closer to the island, but the storm stalled and didn’t get as far north which kept the outer rain bands mostly off island. When I checked the local forecast for HPP it started a few days ago showing 8” of rain expected Saturday (today), a day later dropped to 4”, then 2”.
I find government agencies are slow moving, and once they start their response based on a forecast from 3 or 4 days out, they are slow to adjust. Or don’t or won’t adjust. Their messaging continues to focus on that worst case scenario, and schools and businesses respond to that expection.
One year the county sent out volunteers and workers with printed warnings to inform me I had to evacuate from an approaching storm. All of that prep, scheduling, printing, etc occurred 3 or 4 days before landfall. They came to my house 2 days before but by then the storm had dramatically changed course far away from Big Island. No matter how much I pointed out the path had changed they still insisted I had to get out.