2020 tropical storm / hurricane thread

[ChunksterK]

@macuu222: Good luck. A friend who has worked at the Hilo Home Depot since it opened likes to recount how the generators all fly out of the store five days before an anticipated storm landfall. Then if there is no massive power outage, they all get returned a day or two after the all clear. He said that after Iselle, people were returning generators that had been used two weeks or more. HD has a generous return policy, and they actually took some of them.

[macuu222]

Thanks.. Went to Home Depot and snagged the last one. Dewalt 2200 watt super quiet  with handle on top.  Cost $649.00. I'm gonna take chunksterK's advice and just leave it in the box unopened till/if I need it. Home Depot said they have a  "special" 30 day return policy with regard to approaching hurricanes and generators. You can return it only if you don't use it. Once the gasoline is in the tank ....it's yours.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Douglas spaghetti models:
Cyclocane - Hurricane Douglas

The ECMWF (European model) currently tracks Douglas north of us, passing in the channel between Big Island and Maui.
But we are definitely in the cone.

[1@3_aBc]

Well, if Douglas stays on course and holds it's strength, I may need to cut down some trees near the house so they won't  be able to cause harm in a bad scenario.
Gonna go look at our situation later today and make decisions about them.
If needed I'll begin cutting them tomorrow as needed.
If the eye passes South of us, East-west winds will be the strongest with lead winds out of the North
If it passes North of us East-west winds won't be as strong.
Lead winds will be out of the North, tail winds from the South.
Much depends on how close the eye comes.

If Windy's projection holds, Honolulu may get the worst of it.
But it is too soon to tell yet.

EDIT:
Gotta go test run our generator today in prep.

[terracore]

5pm update shows little change in the track but pegs the eye on the island around 2:00pm Sunday. If you were planning on having the entire weekend to prepare for the storm, you may want to aim for Saturday to finish getting things prepped.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.sh...t#contents

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Thursday AM, July 23rd:

Douglas’ path has remained fairly consistent over the past 24 hours.  Models project the storm will pass slightly north of the Big Island, with a direct hit in the Hawi area.
The ECMWF model shifted 5-10 miles south since yesterday, with the eye of Hurricane Douglas now moving directly over Hawi as a category 1 storm.  

Puna, and the entire Hawaiian Island chain remain in the cone.

[1@3_aBc]

The storm's forward motion has increased from 17 to 20 mph and will probably continue to increase unless it stalls when it nears land. As long as it tracks to the north that should work for us by reducing wind speeds by close to the forward motion.

Sat, Sun and Mon could be very rainy, as well as having strong winds.
The big albezia on the lot across from us has many large branches over hanging the power  lines,  could take our power out.
Asplund came through a few weeks ago trimming within 12' of the power lines, didn't touch the albezia.
I spoke with them, wasn't in the contract.

We lost power for 6 days after Iselle, and for 3 days after the following storm, no showers, no ice, cooking with a Coleman stove on the lanai, and so on.
Bought our generator because of Iselle.
Buying the generator was one of our best decisions.
Keeping it was our 2nd best.

This will be the 4th wind storm in 6 + years.
We've needed it at least every 2 years.
Even had to use it due to the eruption and the county's high handed move turning off our power.

Seems like a lot of storms for an area that is supposed to have a low probability of hurricanes.
Personally, I think the usual storm track that runs south of us is being moved north towards us by the "Global Warming" phenomena.

EDIT:
Added fun, from NWS's forecast the storm will be hitting B.I. in the dark Sat night.
That's always a lot more entertaining than if it comes during the day time.

[Tom.Yost]

I can't remember the term for it, but I know there is a phenomenon where westerly winds running downhill between the mountains can be increased by the topography. Has anyone heard any mention of this possibility occurring as the eye passes to the north?

[1@3_aBc]

Not sure if it's what you're talking about, but our 2nd wind storm, a couple months after iselle, a bright sunny day, was a Kona Wind.
It blew a tree down that almost hit the house. No relation to hurricanes.
I assume they're like the venturi effect winds that blow down out of the Alaskan mountains caused by the proximity of high and low pressure systems.

[terracore]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240243
TCDEP3

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL      EP082020
500 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020

Douglas remains a well organized hurricane in visible and infrared
satellite imagery.  The 15-nmi-wide eye remains very distinct and
the surrounding cloud tops have cooled since the previous advisory.
Although not evident in conventional satellite imagery, a recent
AMSR-2 microwave satellite image showed evidence of concentric
eyewalls.  Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are
6.0 (115 kt) and recent UW/CIMSS ADT estimates have been creeping
upward, and now also close to T6.0.  Based on these estimates,
the initial wind speed has been raised to 115 kt, making Douglas a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Douglas has likely reached its peak intensity as it will be moving
over cooler SSTs during the next day or so. Although the predicted
track of the hurricane will bring it over warmer waters when
Douglas approaches the Hawaiian Islands, vertical shear is forecast
to increase at that time.  This is expected to result in continued
gradual weakening, however Douglas is forecast to be near
hurricane strength when it moves close to Hawaii. Despite the
slight increase in the initial intensity, the updated NHC wind
speed forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory through 36
hours, and then follows the intensity consensus guidance
thereafter.

Douglas continues moving quickly west-northwestward or 295/16 kt. 
The hurricane is forecast to remain on this heading with some
slight reduction in forward speed during the next day or so as it
remains to the south of a large mid-level ridge.  After that time,
Douglas is forecast to turn westward to the south of another strong
mid-level ridge the is predicted to build well north of the
Hawaiian Islands later in the weekend.  The new NHC track forecast
is very similar to the previous advisory and lies just south of the
various consensus aids out of respect of the ECMWF and its ensemble
mean which lie along the southern edge of the track envelope.


Key Messages:

1.  Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning Saturday night or Sunday. 
Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over
the next few days. Watches could be issued on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 14.9N 138.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  24/1200Z 15.9N 141.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  25/0000Z 17.1N 144.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  25/1200Z 18.2N 147.4W  90 KT 105 MPH
48H  26/0000Z 19.2N 150.4W  75 KT  85 MPH
60H  26/1200Z 20.0N 153.2W  65 KT  75 MPH
72H  27/0000Z 20.5N 156.0W  60 KT  70 MPH
96H  28/0000Z 21.3N 161.8W  50 KT  60 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 21.8N 168.5W  45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

---

Maybe one of our armchair meteorologists can answer my question. The GFS (NOAA) forecast shows the storm tracking north between BI and Maui. The ECMWF (European) model shows it headed straight towards Puna.

What is the reliability difference between the two models, and didn't the Europeans warn that Iniki was going to slam Kauai days before NOAA did, giving them only a few hours to prepare?