It is very possible a new eruption has begun out in the area of Puu Oo in the last hour or so.
The weather is keeping one from seeing very much through the webcams, or line of sight locations in Puna, but the instrumentation suggest the onset of substantial changes at about 2:10 local time.
The first sign of change is in the Electronic Tilt as seen on the first two plots here:
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kil...ation.html
where you will see what looks like the instruments are recording a relatively flat line over the reporting period. This is unlike all the plots up until this time that showed vigorous changes both at the summit and down at Puu Oo. The reason for the change is the plots are now showing a very large change at the far right side where one can see the POC line (green) heading for the sky and then quickly turning around and falling again over the last hour and a half or so.
Note: the plots vertical reporting scale changes with the size of change being recorded. As such all of the last while changes have been deduced to that thin line because of the size of change happening now.
This, in most instances, would first be considered a machine malfunction more than an actual event and as such one would look to other independent data to rule out as much and considered it real. To look at other data, such as the the seismic stations in the area. I looked at the seismic data as it can be accessed here:
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories...uakes.html
To see the details, plots of actual recordings etc., you have to figure out how to use that page. There is a wealth of data there, being shown in real time, but one has to learn how to turn on access to the different sets. Using the "0 Instruments Visible..." drop down menu on the right, selecting what type of data you want to see and then click on the different instrument icons that show up on the map.
I turned on the Seismometers and then looked at the STCD station just to the west of the Puu Oo vent. This brings up a window with the actual recorded seismic trace plotted in several time spans. I then clicked on the 6 hours plot and was able to see this in a separate window.. as you can here:
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...TCD-6h.png
in which you will note that by 14:10 (local time) there began a slow at first but marked increase in the tremor amplitude that over the next 45 minutes increased substantially. This change will not be seen in this, the 6 hour plot, as soon as that much time elapses.
To further confirm this is real, and not just malfunctions of instruments, I looked at the different seismic stations plots all the way back to the summit and they all show a similar pattern.
I believe this is a major increase in the tremor being recorded. Tremor is the seismic signature of magma moving in a conduit (under ground), and if there is enough of it is a strong indication of vigorous eruptive activity. This is most likely evidence of the onset of a new eruption out at Puu Oo. As such I suspect the ongoing overflows of the Halemaumau Vent to subside and all the extra magma that has been stored in Kilauea's summit to erupt down at the new vent, wherever it is, in the next few days. Hopefully it will clear up and the evening sky will be filled with that red glow that is so uniquely Puna.
Paul, if I am wrong I'll wear my Chicken Little wings.. I promise.
