Thread Rating:
  • 1 Vote(s) - 2 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
There are now 20 brand new homes for sale in HPP.
According to Zillow, which seems to utilize a feral AI algorithm to compute their estimates*, Hawaii saw one of the largest drops in home prices across the nation last year.  Kind of goes against the general word on the street, and anti-vacation rental sentiment of the Maui council that home prices are becoming more and more out of reach, and simply unaffordable. Which I believe is true, but I moved here in 1987 and can’t name a year in which that wasn’t true.

https://www.cnbc.com/select/states-with-...me-values/

* I have seen their estimates move like a roller coaster in just one week

   
Reply
https://oahure.com/oahu-real-estate/2008...ver-again/

This person thinks it will go down.
Reply
Keeping it local, I have a successful realtor friend who tracks price trends on Hawaii Island using median sales values and days on market taken from the Multiple Listing Service's database.

His numbers indicate that as of 1 October, Puna sold prices were down 8% year over year. Keaau was down 22% with days on the market up 77%. Keaau sales volume was down 19%, so the sample size is smaller. In any case, the trend is downward, and with HPP heavily skewing the Keaau numbers, it's likely safe to say HPP is down.

My friend says that homes at the lower priced end of the market are holding value better while higher priced houses and new construction are having to cut prices to move. Paradoxically, overall prices on Hawaii Island were up 11%, but he attributes that to an upsurge of sales in Kohala.
Reply
Puna real estate report for Nov 2025, prices compared to Nov 2024:

https://www.alohasothebysrealty.com/Mark...5-december&utm_content=view-market-report&utm_medium=email&utm_source=activepipe

   
Reply
It is truly remarkable just how many variables, which would be very difficult to predict, have an effect on hyper local markets like HPP.

One example of this, that is hot in the news, is the shrinking household size in Hawaii which accounts for a stagnant or shrinking population occupying even greater numbers of housing units as our generally larger family units move away and smaller family units that can afford to live in Hawaii move in.  This documented phenomenon appears to create more demand for the available supply of homes.

Also hot in the news, over in the tephra thread, is how it is now just downright scary to be living in an area where high volcanic activity is the new normal and where 99% of folks' water supply comes from their rooftops.  We have neighbors out willy-nilly with high power blowers -blowing hazardous materials at us that are documented health risks. It's reasonable to assume that some of the contaminants penetrated a high number of our water systems.  Vog alone is enough of a health risk to give pause to potential home buyers.

During the event itself, we were advised to disconnect our water storage from our water supply during an extended dry period. If this dry weather keeps up, no doubt the water haulers will be enjoying the windfall (no pun intended) we have to pay for this basic resource we require to survive.

Feels kinda 3rd world in HPP right now which is something that Realtors might not point out to low information buyers, but that savvy buyers might observe and then astutely decide to demand something else. One could reasonably surmise that this documented phenomenon of water and air quality issues due to high volcanic activity would decrease the demand for the available supply and would push housing prices lower.

It is all so fascinating to me and I appreciate all of you who have contributed to Punaweb's awareness of the hyper local and not so local nuances that Realtors might not be aware of or simply forget to mention to home buyers evaluating a purchase in HPP. 

Caveat Emptor.
Reply
"...One example of this, that is hot in the news, is the shrinking household size in Hawaii which accounts for a stagnant or shrinking population occupying even greater numbers of housing units as our generally larger family units move away and smaller family units that can afford to live in Hawaii move in. This documented phenomenon appears to create more demand for the available supply of homes..."

This is a nationwide phenomenon. Probably also true in just about every advanced nation these days. I believe Hawaii is a bit worse off than most states, however.
Reply
(02-04-2026, 10:20 PM)Durian Fiend Wrote: "...One example of this, that is hot in the news, is the shrinking household size in Hawaii which accounts for a stagnant or shrinking population occupying even greater numbers of housing units as our generally larger family units move away and smaller family units that can afford to live in Hawaii move in.  This documented phenomenon appears to create more demand for the available supply of homes..."

This is a nationwide phenomenon.  Probably also true in just about every advanced nation these days.  I believe Hawaii is a bit worse off than most states, however.

Correct.  It is more pronounced in Hawaii as we have the largest household family units in the USA except for Utah.
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)