2025 Hurricane Season

[TomK]

For a more nuanced view of temps around the islands here's NOAA's close up view of the area around the state..

In summary, the sea temperatures east of Hawaii don't seem capable of sustaining major hurricanes arriving from the East Pacific.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

NOAA going beyond five days.

There’s probably many good reasons for the publicly distributed hurricane forecasts not to go too far into the future Chunkster.  Most of us here have watched spaghetti models long enough to know how much accuracy they lose over extended forecast times.  Most spaghetti models at this point in Kiko’s path will be wrong.  I like to watch them though, but they could cause the general public to lose trust in the usually accurate 24-48 hour forecast, and throw the baby out with the bath water (5-10 day forecast).

[Durian Fiend]

Here's what Puna weatherman Harry Durgin has to say about it.

"Both the GFS and the ECMWF models show the storm strengthening as it is steered west by a ridge to the north. Looking out a week, both models show an upper level trough traversing the far northern Pacific and causing a weakness in the ridge. Both models also show the Eleven-E responding to the weakness in the ridge by gaining latitude. Also in both models we see Eleven-E resuming a westerly path when the upper level trough exits to the northeast, allowing the ridge to rebuild.

Where Eleven-E ends up after the interaction with the upper level trough determines how close it will be, and therefore what effects we can expect.

Along Eleven-E's path are colder waters to the north and also dry and stable air; as we've been seeing for much of this summer. Cold water and dry air limit a cyclone's strength, and as such we are expected to see weakening happen prior to the storm passing by or over us. How much weakening is determined in large part by the storm's path. A more northerly path means less access to tropical moisture and colder waters for a weaker storm.

Potential impacts are a little over a week away and there's plenty of time to see how Eleven-E progresses."

[Durian Fiend]

For a more nuanced view of temps around the islands here's NOAA's close up view of the area around the state..

In summary, the sea temperatures east of Hawaii don't seem capable of sustaining major hurricanes arriving from the East Pacific.

Not exactly.    Here's the Puna weatherman's early morning update. He's living in New York at this time:

  "Current runs of both the GFS and the ECMWF show a worst case scenario for us with conditions similar to Iselle for much of our island. The storm is still a week away and the track could change significantly in that time... but it is certainly a risk worth addressing over the week ahead."

[MyManao]

Here's the Puna weatherman's early morning update..

Is that called storm mongering?

I'm not arguing for or against.. I don't have a dog in the fight.. no rooster to bet on.. but will observe the sea temps and add..

I find the further out a model says a storm will hit us the more its likelihood of doing so diminishes. That’s purely antidotal.. but hey it’s served as a reasonable rule of thumb. The earlier they say OMG.. the more likely it's going elsewhere..

But, more precisely, with yesterday's projected path of this one being pretty horizontal for a stretch over hotter water, we were left to the standard set of choices further out from the five day modeling.. turn north and stay east of the islands as it rises in the latitudes to be high enough to go around us to the north.. turn north as it approaches and slam into us.. or pass us by to the south.

But today's projections have the storm decidedly turning north earlier..

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic...e#contents

And, in turn, now the models that had it all over us with yesterdays forecasts have it dying out before it gets to us with today's..

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/1...6-240.html

And, no matter what and when, as I posted from NOAA's satellites yesterday it has that cooler body of water that makes "Puna weatherman's" forecast sound like more of his excitable musings than data based projections..

I hope this storm loses its wind as it passes into cooler waters.. but doesn’t turn north into them until it gets close enough to hit us with torrential rains that goes on for a stretch.. 3-4 days worth of fill up the water tanks saturate the ground and breathe some life into our otherwise drought stricken island. 

And since I’m writing Santa we could use a real good stretch of trade wind showers to follow.

[TomK]

Durian Fiend - all I did was summarize what MyManao's post was saying, as it was so long-winded. If Kiko is steered towards the islands, it has to battle through cooler sea temperatures. I see few chances that Kiko will become a storm with a significant impact on Hawaii, given the latest conditions.

[Durian Fiend]

Here's the Puna weatherman's early morning update..

Is that called storm mongering?

I'm not arguing for or against.. I don't have a dog in the fight.. no rooster to bet on.. but will observe the sea temps and add..

I find the further out a model says a storm will hit us the more its likelihood of doing so diminishes. That’s purely antidotal.. but hey it’s served as a reasonable rule of thumb. The earlier they say OMG.. the more likely it's going elsewhere..

He presented that as a worst case scenario, not a statement of high probability that the storm will hit us.   As he said previously, the path it ultimately takes will depend upon the interaction dynamics of the ridge that's been present most of the summer to the north and a developing trough.   The sooner it turns north, the quicker it will die out due to cooler ocean temps.  Conversely, tracking straight ahead would allow the storm to get stronger and stay that way for longer.

[MyManao]

a worst case scenario..

Is.. it always hits us.

And, god knows, I ain't a weatherman, nor do I play one in my fantasies like wannabes with YouTube or FB or whatever 'channels' but yes, a direct hit is always the worst case scenario. In fact, if we discount all other data points it's a sure thing.. a given.. run for your lives! Every single time!

Though in this case that cold water.. ie my 'too long for Tom's sensibilities' first post on the matter.. kinda tells a different story..

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Though in this case that cold water.. ie my 'too long

When people fight over a hurricane, bet on the hurricane. It’s gonna do what it’s gonna do.

[kalianna]

"run for your lives! Every single time!" Been there, done that. Remember hurricane Douglas? Itʻs coming, itʻs coming... itʻs not coming. We cleared off many years worth of lanai stuff, tools, plants, etc. Then put it all back. Letʻs wait until three days out and see what happens.