Hurricane season 2026

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Hurricane Genevieve was a category 5 today, off the coast of Mexico.  Models show it moving on a course toward Hawaii even farther north than Fausto.  

It’s still July, the ocean is warm and forming powerful storms.

[MyManao]

Donʻt panic when you look at this as none of these appears to be a threat to Hawaiʻi, but Iʻve never seen so many potential storms in the Pacific all at once.

Ya know, I am certain we have had a riot of events, and a lot of them at the same time, somewhere not too far back in time.. and I was wondering where could I get something visual to point at? I just distinctly remember something like 5 cyclonic systems all happening at the same time, all coming out of the east and heading more or less in our direction... you know a real wtf kine moment.. and none of them actually ending up here. But I remember that feeling when we had pics of a whole bunch of systems dancing around at the same time... I think it even made the mainland (West coast, maybe the Chronicle, newspapers)

And then I found this page...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2026&basin=cpac

Which is pretty cool as a baseline to search from. And I found this map of the storms that formed and danced around in 2015.. 



which seems the most active year going back for a while... and yes we had quite a cluster of them in July and August..

[Durian Fiend]

Puna weatherman Harry Durgin says there’s a chance we will see a hurricane next weekend.
Stay tuned.

“…Trouble is brewing to our southeast as the MJO passes through our basin and vertical shear relaxes over us. Today we see multiple models leaning towards development of a low currently near 8N 138W. Very warm sea surface temperatures this year could allow for a direct hit with a up to a CAT3 hurricane next weekend. This is a full week away and the storm might not form, or remain weak, or pass by to our south or east, or impact our island with catastrophic damage.
Please stay informed for the next week as models are likely to vary from day to day.

I will be posting at least twice a day from now until after this risk passes.”

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Visual of Durian Fiend’s post above, from Cyclocane:

   

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Update since this morning, probability of the closest low weather system becoming a hurricane now 80%, up from 70% earlier today:

   

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

ECWMF model for next Friday, August 14, 8 AM.
I’m not sure how to run models on Tropical Tidbits, so if anyone can provide more information or instructions please do, especially rain and wind forecasts.  

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...odel=ecmwf®ion=cpac&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2026080818&fh=144

   

[ironyak]

Officially deemed Invest 93C now, models are all over the place for this storm, but starting to hit the news feeds so should be plenty of discussion over the next several days as it goes south of, or north of, or directly over, or immediately away from, us.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#93C

[Durian Fiend]

ECWMF model for next Friday, August 14, 8 AM.
I’m not sure how to run models on Tropical Tidbits, so if anyone can provide more information or instructions please do, especially rain and wind forecasts.  

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...odel=ecmwf®ion=cpac&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2026080818&fh=144

It's not immediately obvious to me how to do it either.   Durgin says there are two systems that possibly could merge into one.  The current model runs have one going north of us and one going south, but this is with a high degree of uncertainty.

[ironyak]

TropicalTidbits allows you to get deep in the weeds on all sorts of predictions so caveat emptor, CYA, YMMV, etc, but you can use the "Hurricane" dropdown at the top to select the model you want for Invest 93C and then the "Precip/Moisture" menu at the left or bottom left to select the moisture and wind info to create all sorts of mixes and matches (you like millimeters and knots right? ;) and then the "Forecast Time" on the right in hours. Hopefully between all the mixes and matches you can find the right combo you're after. As for if it means anything at 5 - 6 days out is an entirely different conversation.

Hopefully the screenshot at least helps highlight the options available. Good luck!

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

there are two systems that possibly could merge into one.
…
as it goes south of, or north of, or directly over, or immediately away from, us.

Yeah, that point at which the 2 systems interact is a wild card.  Some models show loop-de-loos, or weird circular tracks which then head off every which way.  That’s not something I remember seeing before.


Thanks for the Tropical Tidbits info ironyak!