HILDA TROPICAL STORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR BI

[terracore]

Iselle had been a Cat IV, sheered down to a Cat I as it neared the island, and had been downgraded to a tropical storm before it made landfall.

[PaulW]

Tropical Storm, just missed being the first hurricane in recorded history

[Carey]

Just a little clarification:
The current & historical wind history of this storm has been fairly consist at WNW, with no real "veering' at present, however modeling of the storm has the predicted path to veer
Hilda wind history is contained on the NOAA page for Hilda::
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=EP102015

At this point ((Saturday evening) Hawaii county is still within the probability area of the track, and, though it is not on the direct path of any of the current "Spaghetti models", look at the models highest predicted winds, only one would have predicted the Cat 4 sustained winds that Hilda has produced....
http://www.cyclocane.com/hilda-spaghetti-models/

Again, I would advise everyone to prepare as if this is a real threat, and hopefully Hilda will decide on a different path...but like a wave, do not turn your back on a storm like this!

[pbmaise]

Cut albesian trees near home

[Guest]

Puna is probably taking Hilda a little more seriously than the rest of the state, due to the tropical storm Iselle experience last year.
Kauai wasn't expecting this monster on their shores?https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vJkdUnzvuSA
Those computer models, projections, or predictions sometimes aren't always right.
Better to be safe and prepared for anything at this point. Anyone heard about a possible storm surge or size of waves associated with Hilda yet?

[terracore]

Good news: Hilda has weakened to a Category 3, and it forecasted to continue weakening.

Bad news: This morning's "cone" shows the NE of the BI taking the direct hit.

It's too far out to know anything for certain.

[PunaMauka2]

Current forecast for Hilda if/when it arrives @ big island:


2:00 AM Fri HST Advisory #15
Hurricane HILDA (EP102015)
Advisory #15
120 hr Forecast
Valid at: 2:00 AM HST Fri August 14, 2015
Location: 20.0 N, 155 W
Maximum Wind: 30 knots (35 mph)
Wind Gusts: 40 knots (45 mph)

From interactive map -
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=EP102015

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Latest projection, Advisory #16, 11 AM Sunday - - center of the storm (as a tropical depression) makes landfall over Cape Kumukahi.

[terracore]

The latest update shows the center of the island now taking a direct hit. We are right in the center of the "cone". According to forecast discussion, the weaker the storm becomes, the more likely we are to take a direct hit:

FOR CLARITY AND CONVENIENCE WE USUALLY WRITE SEPARATE PARAGRAPHS
FOR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENTS...BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
FOR HILDA CANNOT BE CONSIDERED SEPARATELY. IF HILDA WERE TO REMAIN A
STRONG AND DEEP SYSTEM...HER TRACK WOULD LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY
STEERING FLOW THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT WOULD
MEAN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THE WEAKER AND SHALLOWER HILDA
BECOMES...THE MORE ITS TRACK WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE TRADE-WIND
FLOW IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT WOULD GIVE HILDA A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK.

[dakine]

The latest update shows the center of the island now taking a direct hit.

What I find the most interesting about all these reports / predictions is how the storms don't do what's predicted. Since the beginning of Hilda all the modeling has had the storm veer to the north (starting days ago) and the actual path taken has been pretty steady to the west with a very slight northerly trend.. but nothing as dramatic as the predictions. So much so that at this point it seems there's a chance the ol girl'll go south of us. I'm not saying I 'know' anything.. just watching and enjoying contemplating the puzzle of it all.