0.18% chance a Tsunami will kill us this year

[terracore]

from an Alaska earthquake:

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/31972...-aleutians

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) -

A mega-tsunami in Hawaii generated by an Aleutian Islands earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher would affect more than 300,000 people, the state estimates, and cause some $40 billion in damage.

But how probable is an event like that?

A team of University of Hawaii at Manoa researchers spent five years trying to answer that question, and here's what they concluded: There's a 9 percent chance of Hawaii suffering a direct hit from such a mega-tsunami in the next 50 years.

In other words, rare but possible.

"These are rare events. They don't happen all the time but there is a chance for them and our effort here is to try to define what that chance might be," said geophysicist Rhett Butler, the lead author on the study, published this week in the Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth

Butler set to work studying the risks of a mega-tsunami in Hawaii after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, which killed more than 15,000 people.

Co-author Neil Frazer, a professor of geology and geophysics at UH-Manoa, said Hawaii shouldn't just be worried about earthquakes and tsunamis from the Aleutian Islands. But, he added, "this is the one that's more important because it's very close, so we have very little time to evacuate."

In fact, experts estimate that residents would only have about four hours to get to higher ground before a tsunami from an Aleutian Island quake were to reach Hawaii shores.

Butler says the study wasn't done to scare people, but remind them to be prepared and have an evacuation plan in place.

The next step for the team: Looking at the risk to Hawaii from tsunamis generated by smaller earthquakes in the Pacific.

[ElysianWort]

Hmm food for thought I guess. If someone thinks they might have to worry about those percentages though, they may want to chew carefully as choking on a chicken nugget or of course hopping in your car carries a much higher percentage of your death.

[terracore]

I'm sure that during the expensive 5-year study they took into consideration that 11% of the world's earthquakes happen in Alaska, the 2nd strongest earthquake ever recorded happened there, and that there are several active volcanoes in Alaska currently shaking things up.

My daughter is a student at the University that took 5 years to calculate these odds and lets just say that she doesn't have the most confidence in anything that comes out of there.

[VancouverIslander]

And people in Hilo thought I was crazy for buying a place in Eden Roc!

Just call me Mike

[Lee M-S]

I'm with Mike;
define "us"

><(((*< ... ><(("< ... ><('< ... >o>

[kimo wires]

Hilo Bay is a sitting duck for an earthquake like one that will likely happen someday.
Its not if but when. I just hope its way,way in the future though.
I was just trying to imagine the Chaos of trying to live here in the aftermath of it. It would make T.S. Iselle look like a Hiccup.

[geochem]

quote:

---

Originally posted by terracore

I'm sure that during the expensive 5-year study they took into consideration that 11% of the world's earthquakes happen in Alaska, the 2nd strongest earthquake ever recorded happened there, and that there are several active volcanoes in Alaska currently shaking things up.

My daughter is a student at the University that took 5 years to calculate these odds and lets just say that she doesn't have the most confidence in anything that comes out of there.

---

If you would take the time and trouble to read the research, rather than just the headlines, you would find that only earthquakes from specific areas of the Aleutian trench direct their energy towards Hawaii; that one such area has not experienced an earthquake in the recent past and is, therefore, overdue for an event that could generate a tsunami in Hawaii that is substantially larger than any for which we have a historic record.

That earthquake will occur, if not in the next year, or the next 50 years, nonetheless it will occur and will have devastating effects on Honolulu and most low-lying urban areas of the state. And if your daughter of such towering intellect happens to be living in Hawaii at the time, she may have very good cause to be thankful that that research was done and that someone in the state took the trouble to plan for it and plan for how to reduce the loss of life will inevitably result.

[TomK]

I'll tell you this. If I hear of a volcano erupting in Alaska, I won't do very much. If I hear of a magnitude 9 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands I'm heading as far inland as fast as I can.

[alaskyn66]

It's more fun to think about what would happen if the Hilina slump gave way.

..What would King Kamehameha do..

[TomK]

Alaskyn66 - one day it'll go, but the big difference is there will be plenty of warnings, e.g., earthquake swarms, evidence of slipping etc. Big earthquakes, on the other hand, rarely come with a warning.