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kander - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5LfxArGLEU
This is just a repeating of the info from the LA tests.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-ne...s-n1188721
The problem with that antibody test in particular is that it is likely also detecting antibodies for other cold-causing coronaviruses and has been shown that 30% of its positives results can be from detecting antibodies for influenza.
https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/...3965688837
With 100+ antibody tests on the market (and only a handful certified by the FDA - some advertised as 90% accurate actually were found to be only 6%-70% accurate) I would caution about trying to jump to conclusions to justify a particular policy. There is some serious science that needs to be done to sort out real results from the garbage (and that's not even considering the politics being heaped on)
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/co...2020-04-21
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Updated study on Chloroquine, the malaria drug some thought was a miracle cure for COVID-19. It doesn’t affect the virus, but it did kill 17% more people in the group who took the drug.
"About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone."
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020...study.html
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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“I feel good about it. That’s all it is, just a feeling, you know, smart guy. I feel good about it.”
So that counts for nothing? Darn.
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I'm trying to catch up with you all. Puna Think Tank, at it's best. A few things come to mind as I read (only the last 5 pages...this is a long thread..) and I'd like to throw some things in the pot.
First off, I'm really sorry so many of you have most likely already had Covid, and my heart goes out to you for what you went through.
I'm still an RN. I'm sorry to say I have zero confidence in any of the tests, so I'm trying hard not to get it until Science can do it's thing. IMO, there just isn't enough data. We need time, and accurate tests (for everyone) for all phases, diagnosis, antibodies, treatment and eventually, vaccine.
From what my coworkers/friends tell me, their Hospitals are either slammed, or losing a million $/day because they're not doing Elective Surgeries during the lockdown, and have seen very few cases. My friend, ICU Nurse in Texas was just offered 10,000$/week, to go to work in N.Y.
I'm all for the precautions we are taking now. They give us time. It took Scientists almost 5 years to develop the Polio Vaccine. The People paid for the research through the March of Dimes. I think I got my vaccine the first year it was offered to everyone. (long time ago)
The numbers that stand out in my mind are 40,000 + dead in the US. 1:5 cases are Health Care Workers, 1% of Americans tested (with "iffy" tests".)
We have an "every man (State) for himself" attitude from those in charge., and there's nothing we can do about it, but take care of ourselves.
I've had dry eyes, some headaches and zero energy for ages, but not sure if it's age or illness. If we (Scientists, not Politicians) ever get it together, I'll get tested.
Meantime, stay home, and work in the yard if we can, wear our masks when we're out, and onward Puna! Be well.
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Thank you, Kenney, and really nice to see you posting again! Are you actually practicing now or retired?
I think your views on testing are spot on. Without knowing the fraction of the population infected then there is no way to safely reopen, and then you need to continue that high rate of testing until you have the information you need so we don't get a second wave, and perhaps a more serious one. Right now, we don't, but unfortunately, politicians are making the decisions and in many cases, scientists are being ignored. It's all about votes for some.
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TomK - Without knowing the fraction of the population infected...
Strangely, someone pointed this out as the first response to Marilyn's pop-quiz you pilfered and handed out - you forgot some crucial info for your problem (or at least the good Reverend Thomas might say so)
Even more strange, that was like 8.8 pages ago... (that number, again... this is insanity! Or maybe it's genius)
https://youtu.be/jo18VIoR2xU?t=22
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kander - the 4/14 paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...1.full.pdf seems to indicate that the new strains are in fact becoming more deadly.
That one was a bit of a slog due to all the technical wonk in there. As a general summary, they took various samples of the virus with different mutations, added them to some cells, and then tried to quantify their effects linking some changes such as viral load to these different mutations.
The few obvious caveats are it has not been peer reviewed (very few of these pre-prints have been holding up to scrutiny), results have not been replicated, and what happens in a cell line does not mean the same results are seen in vivo such as in animal studies or in people. There are also layers and layers of technical details that would need to be reviewed and verified from cell lines to imagery techniques to software used.
So they are initial lab results that point to some potential differences, each of which needs to be confirmed to hold true in the general population before being able to say the virus has dangerously mutated with worsening consequences.
That's my take, but it's really just the standard "slow down and do more and better science before making big proclamations" mantra that gets drilled into so you don't stick your foot in your mouth too much. Everyone wants to jump to grand conclusions (antibody tests show it's just the flu bro, mutations are leading to pneumoconio-sis) that the meager science done so far just can't support.
This event is really challenging the scientific community on how to do reliable, responsive, and responsible studies and public communication. While some strides have been made, there is still much than can be improved.
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Aloha Tom. Glad to hear from you. Hope all is well with you and yours.
Yes, I'm still Licenced, but have only been volunteering for the past decade. I'm not a good candidate for front line work during this emergency, ( age and pre existing conditions) so am looking into (perhaps) getting involved in Contact Tracing, if my abysmal computer skills don't disqualify me.
It's hard not being able to jump in when so many of my friends and colleagues are in peril, but I hope I can do my part to help. If nothing else, I've been using my skills as a Nurse Educator in an effort to dispel some of the insane beliefs regarding this disease I see online. Like my Daddy used to say, "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him think".
Like during the Eruptions, we all do what we can to lessen the suffering of our Community. I hope we can all endure and come out of this alive, and thriving. Be well Punatics!
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Thanks for your efforts Kenney and welcome back. What were some of the insane beliefs you've seen? My favorite was someone saying that covid-19 was included in the last flu vaccine. Well, that and the idea that 5G is somehow causing it.
My favorite...
Was watching people get all tied up in knots saying masks don't protect us. The damn silliness went on for like forever! And OMG the pompousness. The I know better than you-ness. The need to shame and ridicule those that would suggest that masks are good for you.
Imagine that. And now they are required.
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