Mauna Loa erupting

[dobanion]

Yes, agreed. I’m not making predictions of the progression, or duration of the eruption. Nobody seriously can really. 2018 Leilani stopped so suddenly it was like Pele just turned off the valve.

Just saying the end of the lines of descent all end up at the same place from the current fissure locations.

[ironyak]

I don't know - current vents appear to be on the cusp of both N to NW and N to NE paths along the ridge that ends just west of Pu'u Huluhulu / MK access road - see VERY ROUGH placement map I tossed together (edit: using the more detailed 750K descent paths). It'll be interesting to see if HVO makes any calls on likely paths prior to any flows being well established.

[MyManao]

I’m not making predictions.. the end of the lines of descent all end up at the same place from the current fissure locations.

Yeah, predictions would be folly.. but observationally..

Looking at that initial, preliminary, map with its three fissures, I think that the shortest one, the one furthest to the east (to the right on the map), would, based on the direction the nearest most recent flows (marked on the map in purple) are going around it, that there's a possibility the lava issuing from that fissure would be flowing to the southeast. Obviously there's too many unknowns with such a limited amount of info, but, I think, the surround flows hint at the possibility.

Hey, ironyak, nice to see we're on the same page..

[Obie]

MyManao, I thought you were predicting a flow toward Pahala based on the earthquakes ?

[ironyak]

Agreed MyManao - that small vent farthest east is right on (over?) the ridge when I overlay the vent map and so could go to the SE. Not enough precision in the pixels given so we'll have to wait and see. Getting some deja vu - seems like this possible scenario of vents migrating to the east and ending up flowing SE towards 11 instead of NE towards Hilo was discussed here recently...

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geo...-migration
"Five times within the past 138 yr (1852, 1855-1856, 1880-1881, 1942, and 1984), lava flows from vents on the northeast rift zone of Mauna Loa Volcano have reached within a few kilometres of Hilo (the largest city on the Island of Hawaii). Most lavas erupted on this rift zone in historical time have traveled northeastward (toward Hilo), because their eruptive vents have been concentrated north of the rift zone's broad topographic axis. However, with few exceptions each successive historical eruption on the northeast rift zone has occurred farther southeast than the preceding one. Had the 1984 eruptive vents (the most southeasterly yet) opened less than 200 m farther southeast, the bulk of the 1984 lavas would have flowed away from Hilo. If this historical vent-migration pattern continues, the next eruption on the northeast rift zone could send lavas to the southeast, toward less populated areas." - John P. Lockwood

[kalianna]

USGS has discredited Ikaika's post.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10159334205491395&set=p.10159334205491395&type=3

[MyManao]

If this historical vent-migration pattern continues, the next eruption on the northeast rift zone could send lavas to the southeast, toward less populated areas." - John P. Lockwood

Yeah that's the one I'm looking for.. and oh man that would be so cool for Jack if it does. He wrote that back in like the late '80s.. maybe the publication date is '90? All, of course, assuming she keeps migrating.. as it is..

Here's an interesting bit of intriguing, yet kinda fuzzy, data.. a few satellite images..

https://twitter.com/wrighthydromet/statu...69/photo/2

You might try registering to your other layers..

Here it is on another background..

https://twitter.com/wrighthydromet/statu...53/photo/1

[dobanion]

USGS released a new update. In a nutshell, the vent has moved east, which now puts its to the right of the break point, and it’s as close to a all clear as one can get. It’s looking like a 1984 repeat. Enjoy the show Hilo.

MyManao, kudos, nailed it.

[Or1on]

This map isn't showing anything for the current eruption but it gives some perspective on past flows.  There are patterns.

https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mauna-loa...nd-history

[ironyak]

Here it is on another background..

https://twitter.com/wrighthydromet/statu...53/photo/1

Overlaying that (yellow) with the 1984 data (purple) makes for some interesting comparisons. The currently active vent is following 1984's flow C along the ridge that ultimately tipped over to the SE towards 11 before stalling out.
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mauna-loa...il-15-1984

Also of note is how many of the 1984 flow D's fingers were following paths towards the E and SE before the later flows stabilized towards the NE and Hilo. If Lockwood is correct and the migration of the vents eastward increases the tendency for SE flows, then these paths down towards Hwy 11 may be the more dominant ones this time around.