Mauna Loa erupting

[dobanion]

Can anyone confirm that building permits are being denied on the basis of lava zone? I have heard plenty of rumors, sure, but one case where they said "nope, LZ1, no permit?"

Case in point, the Kalapana area on the 1990 flow sure looks to me like nobody is getting a permit. That could be because they can't, or won't, or don't have to.

My opinion, FTIW, is that if the county wants to assess the value as buildable, and charge the same, and BTW the minimum tax is now 8x what it was in 2014, you should be permitted to build on it.

Slightly off topic, but somewhat related, I have recently been looking at these: https://intershelter.com/

There's a bunch of them on Oahu as church sponsored homeless shelters. Pretty sure they are permittable. They also have the advantageous aspect that if the lava comes your way, you can take it apart in an hour and toss it in the back of a truck.

[MyManao]

MyManoa - BTW.. I am not convinced the tremor signal is clear, free from atmospheric influence.. and as such that sudden drop earlier this morning could be the wind speed dropping below a certain threshold as much as it might be a marked decrease in actual tremor..

Curious as to what led to this addendum - what thresholds might be involved and why this confounding factor is/isn't also gathered at the data source and factored in. Any explanation or pointers to readings on this are appreciated!

It’s purely anecdotal, my own observations, experience. 

Back in the day.. ie before the eruption started and the signal, the seismic trace, wasn’t overwhelmed with tremor, I noticing flurries, bands of increased what looked like sloppy tremor, that weren’t otherwise accounted for.. ie just seismicity without other data streams acting up as well. At the same time I was watching the IFA’s weather page to get a feel for weather conditions.. temp, wind direction/speed, humidity.. and I noticed those bands of increased seismic noise coincided with periods of high winds as recorded on MK, and assumed were happening at ML as well.

Whereas the tilt.. have you appreciated how much the summit has re-inflated? What’s striking to me is how the rate of re-inflation is so similar to, and, at a casual glance looks to mirror the same rate of deflation during the steady state last half of the eruption’s deflation.. 

The tilt for the last month.. ie up to and including the entire eruption and the now steady rebound..



And yeah Kilauea’s behavior.. chicken skin.. like wow.. But interestingly there’s no clear change instrumentally as it is with ML.

[dobanion]

I noticed that too. That sudden reversal of the deflation to inflation, which was followed by some pretty tall fountaining at fissure 3. Then, total shutdown. Alongside Kilauea taking a nap with the lava lake basically solidifying, not dropping out of sight like I'd expect.

What's it all mean? Who knows for sure. I'd guess we could be setting up for a bigger eruption in the near term.

[randomq]

Pelé got pissed at everyone saying she couldn't change directions. Watch out sw rift zone!

[ironyak]

Obviously I meant, "has access to it".  And by that I mean, "legal access".

Sorry, guess I was just being dumb. I couldn't connect the notion of the government paying for access roads but then just saying do whatever you want on those accessible properties, tax-free, so figured you may have been suggesting a more radical solution (like privatizing access roads in high-risk lava zones so those that choose to build there are the ones financing their risky endeavors instead of everyone else in the state/country helping subsidize such choices, for instance).

Probably all a moot point of course as Rob pointed out you can't legally have inaccessible property, or perform a "taking" without compensation by not issuing building permits, so roads & permits have to provided ultimately (although it can take many years - again, talk to the Kapoho or even the Kalapana folks). Short of eminent domain, the federal voluntary buyback program for lava impacted areas is probably the only workable solution to reduce the development in lava zones 1 & 2, which hopefully includes less costly infrastructure (maybe the Red Road should again be red, but I doubt the feds will buy that ;)

I noticed those bands of increased seismic noise coincided with periods of high winds as recorded on MK, and assumed were happening at ML as well.

Gotcha - given that the wind is a confounding actor, I was wondering why it wasn't just measured separately at the site so it could be filtered out. Ran across this short field report from Pu‘u ‘O‘o about various tactics for reducing wind noise, including site selection, baffles, and array redundancy so you can trace the tremor signal from multiple sources and improve the signal to noise levels.

With the small eruption and immediate reinflation it does make one wonder if we might see a return towards the historical trend of ML eruptions every 5-6 years. Have to keep an eye out and see if this thread is resurrected and check back in then - cheers!

[kalakoa]

By the time there's a "buyback program" it's already too late.

County should never have issued building permits in LZ1. People who want to live there should be "fully at risk", on their own dime.

As far as "access", yes, it is "illegal" to create lots without access ... but they definitely exist. My favorite example can be seen along the mauka edge of Hawaiian Acres, where the only "access" is via Old Volcano Trail, which isn't exactly a "road".

[dobanion]

Most of the "roads" in Kalapana Vacation Lots look to have been put in by somebody with a dozer. Not very straight or well done either, based on satellite imagery.

[AaronM]

Where we're going we don't need roads.

[Obie]

This is pretty cool !

https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/decemb...-fissure-3

[TomK]

[...]

The tilt for the last month.. ie up to and including the entire eruption and the now steady rebound..



And yeah Kilauea’s behavior.. chicken skin.. like wow.. But interestingly there’s no clear change instrumentally as it is with ML.

So what is your opinion on both the Mauna Loa and Kilauea eruptions becoming quiet at the same time?