2025 Hurricane Season

[ironyak]

DF - Latest from Durgin 1 hour ago mentions that two models have now converged on one solution, and BTW they both show the storm nailing us.  

That HAFS-A and HAFS-B comparison is something else.



While the TOMK model seems to overly weigh the impact of the local water temperatures, some of these other more nuanced models present some interesting possibilities to be aware of.

[Durian Fiend]

The spaghetti plots are entirely computer generated. When they become tighter, that usually translates into a more confident forecast.
However, at this time we remain in the "cone of uncertainty".

This site discusses the factors that will weaken the hurricane, with a color coded map of wind shear. It doesn't look (to me) like wind shear will be much of a factor unless it turns north more rapidly, in which case we might see little to no effects from the storm. The somewhat cooler ocean water is not expected to factor in until Sunday.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/new...i-forecast

"Most model guidance suggests that Kiko could pass near the islands beginning as soon as Tuesday as a tropical storm or low-end hurricane."

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

suggests Kiko could pass near the islands

If the storm veers north Maui & Oahu might be the more affected islands. Still plenty of unknown unknowns, but in another day or two we’ll start seeing the known unknowns.

[TomK]

DF - Latest from Durgin 1 hour ago mentions that two models have now converged on one solution, and BTW they both show the storm nailing us.  

That HAFS-A and HAFS-B comparison is something else.



While the TOMK model seems to overly weigh the impact of the local water temperatures, some of these other more nuanced models present some interesting possibilities to be aware of.

So go ahead and describe them. You present two pictures, not models, so what units are on the axis, and what nuances are involved in these models? I ask so that you have the opportunity to show you are more than capable of posting pictures and understanding what they mean rather than just posting images with little understanding while trying to look smart.

[Durian Fiend]

Durgin's most recent post shows that both the Euro and GFS now have the storm turning off to the north and not hitting us, except with hopefully some plentiful rainfall.

And yet, both of the ensemble solutions for these models offer a wide range of possibilities including straight at us, hence we remain in the cone of uncertainly with the NWS for now.

[MyManao]

I think FB is a better fit for Harry than here.

As to his latest where Harry shows images of two models (thanks for posting the pic here Yak) and not links to the models, nor any other raw data, but instead conclusions that support his narrative without leaving himself open to questions of how he came to them.. well, that’s Harry. Which is great for those that don’t want to bother with anything more. But leaves those questioning them, like Tom, hanging.

For instance, the two images presented side by side to support Harry’s latest narrative as shared here by our tree hugging Fiend (I had to look dendrophile up.. cool ;) suggest a much more southwesterly track than the last few posts by the NWS. And I would have loved to look at the full data set to find the differences rather than rely upon the single imagine Harry shares.

Interestingly, the NWS latest, their 11am modeling, does move the storm’s path closer to the islands than I had hoped after the previous run, and as such is saying they too see whatever influence Harry’s models are reacting to, but nowhere near as severely. And hey, I would love it if the NWS published more of the back story too.

And then, just to make this exercise in arm chairing it more fun, the latest run of the model over on weather.us is now tracking the system more to our north..

[Durian Fiend]

DF - Latest from Durgin 1 hour ago mentions that two models have now converged on one solution, and BTW they both show the storm nailing us.  

That HAFS-A and HAFS-B comparison is something else.



While the TOMK model seems to overly weigh the impact of the local water temperatures, some of these other more nuanced models present some interesting possibilities to be aware of.

So go ahead and describe them. You present two pictures, not models, so what units are on the axis, and what nuances are involved in these models? I ask so that you have the opportunity to show you are more than capable of posting pictures and understanding what they mean rather than just posting images with little understanding while trying to look smart.

 Both images show a fairly well defined storm quite close to our island.  What else is there to describe?    These models must not take the upper level trough so seriously as the GFS and Euros.  This is all that could possibly explain why they have the storm not turning north sooner.    As HOTPE says, we should know more tomorrow since the general consensus has the storm beginning to turn north in response to the trough quite soon.

And BTW, the images above don't reflect Durgin's "narrative".  As I posted earlier,  "I lean towards the a blend of the GFS and ECMWF, but it would be irresponsible to ignore the HAFS-B forecast."

[Obie]

National Hurricane Center

The winds speeds when it is estimated to hit the island are a speed that my property can withstand.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts
from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to
determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and
interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 134.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 16.3N 143.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 20.3N 154.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

[MyManao]

And BTW, the images above don't reflect Durgin's "narrative". 

I think you're confusing my use of the word 'narrative' with 'conclusions'

Those images support his discussion.. his narrative. His conclusions, as you point out, are otherwise.

But then, what would I really know? I avoid FB.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

I forget - - 
A hurricane passing north of us has less damaging winds than one passing south, right?  That’s why Iselle created so much damage in Puna with 70-75 mph winds?

Anyone care to fill in the details of hurricane circulation patterns?