Hawaiʻi Job Losses, Tourism Downturn Signal Mild Recession

[MyManao]

In early 2020, as covid was looming over the horizon and those of us that saw the writing on the wall already knew the economy was about to collapse, this guy said, officially, in a speech to the state legislature that there was going to be a mild recession. A few months later he made another speech to the same body in which he said the sky was about to fall..

From.. https://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2025/...recession/

Where in part it says..

Hawaiʻi faces a mild recession with a weak economic recovery in 2026, experts say. 

The University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) released its fourth quarter forecast for 2025, reporting that a downturn in tourism, and anticipated job losses, are edging the island economy into mild recession. 

“Inflation, while currently low, will rise next year as tariffs continue to pass through to consumer prices,” a University of Hawaiʻi news release on the UHERO report stated. “Construction remains the one consistently strong sector, supported by major new federal contracts and ongoing housing and infrastructure needs.”

[Durian Fiend]

And yet there are rumors Southwest airlines will be adding Las Vegas to Hilo nonstop service this coming summer.

[ChunksterK]

Apparently not just a rumor. They will offer non-stop service three days a week beginning next August:

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/airl...las-vegas/

[HiloJulie]

Good news for Hilo! 

Beat of Hawaii article if interested:

https://beatofhawaii.com/hilo-finally-ge...e-shakeup/

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Here’s a list of connecting flights on Southwest out of Las Vegas:

https://www.southwest.com/route-map-list-view

Arrival City
Choose a city

Arrival Cities grouping Albany, NY - ALB NonstopNonstop flight
Albuquerque, NM - ABQ NonstopNonstop flight
Amarillo, TX - AMA NonstopNonstop flight
Anchorage, AK - ANC NonstopNonstop flight
Aruba, Aruba - AUA
Atlanta, GA - ATL NonstopNonstop flight
Austin, TX - AUS NonstopNonstop flight
Baltimore/Washington, MD - BWI NonstopNonstop flight
Belize City, Belize - BZE
Birmingham, AL - BHM NonstopNonstop flight
Boise, ID - BOI NonstopNonstop flight
Boston (Logan), MA - BOS
Bozeman/Yellowstone, MT - BZN NonstopNonstop flight
Buffalo/Niagara, NY - BUF NonstopNonstop flight
Burbank, CA - BUR NonstopNonstop flight
Cancun, Mexico - CUN NonstopNonstop flight
Charleston, SC - CHS
Charlotte, NC - CLT
Chicago (Midway), IL - MDW NonstopNonstop flight
Chicago (O'Hare-Terminal 5), IL - ORD NonstopNonstop flight
Cincinnati, OH - CVG
Cleveland, OH - CLE NonstopNonstop flight
Colorado Springs, CO - COS NonstopNonstop flight
Columbus, OH - CMH NonstopNonstop flight
Corpus Christi, TX - CRP
Dallas (Love Field), TX - DAL NonstopNonstop flight
Denver, CO - DEN NonstopNonstop flight
Des Moines, IA - DSM NonstopNonstop flight
Destin/Fort Walton Beach, FL - VPS
Detroit, MI - DTW NonstopNonstop flight
El Paso, TX - ELP NonstopNonstop flight
Eugene, OR - EUG NonstopNonstop flight
Fort Lauderdale, FL - FLL NonstopNonstop flight
Fort Myers, FL - RSW
Fresno, CA - FAT NonstopNonstop flight
Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands - GCM
Grand Rapids, MI - GRR NonstopNonstop flight
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC - GSP
Harlingen, TX - HRL
Hartford, CT - BDL
Havana, Cuba - HAV
Hilo (Hawaii Island), HI - ITO NonstopNonstop flight
Honolulu (Oahu), HI - HNL NonstopNonstop flight
Houston (Hobby), TX - HOU NonstopNonstop flight
Indianapolis, IN - IND NonstopNonstop flight
Jackson, MS - JAN
Jacksonville, FL - JAX
Kahului (Maui), HI - OGG NonstopNonstop flight
Kansas City, MO - MCI NonstopNonstop flight
Knoxville, TN - TYS
Kona (Hawaii Island), HI - KOA NonstopNonstop flight
Liberia (Guanacaste), Costa Rica - LIR
Lihue (Kauai), HI - LIH NonstopNonstop flight
Little Rock, AR - LIT NonstopNonstop flight
Long Beach, CA - LGB NonstopNonstop flight
Long Island/Islip, NY - ISP
Los Angeles, CA - LAX NonstopNonstop flight
Los Cabos, Mexico - SJD NonstopNonstop flight
Louisville, KY - SDF NonstopNonstop flight
Lubbock, TX - LBB NonstopNonstop flight
Manchester, NH - MHT
Memphis, TN - MEM NonstopNonstop flight
Miami, FL - MIA
Midland/Odessa, TX - MAF NonstopNonstop flight
Milwaukee, WI - MKE NonstopNonstop flight
Minneapolis/St. Paul (Terminal 2), MN - MSP NonstopNonstop flight
Montego Bay, Jamaica - MBJ
Montrose (Telluride/Crested Butte), CO - MTJ
Myrtle Beach, SC - MYR
Nashville, TN - BNA NonstopNonstop flight
Nassau, Bahamas - NAS
New Orleans, LA - MSY NonstopNonstop flight
New York (LaGuardia), NY - LGA
Norfolk, VA - ORF
Oakland, CA - OAK NonstopNonstop flight
Oklahoma City, OK - OKC NonstopNonstop flight
Omaha, NE - OMA NonstopNonstop flight
Ontario/LA, CA - ONT NonstopNonstop flight
Orange County/Santa Ana, CA - SNA NonstopNonstop flight
Orlando, FL - MCO NonstopNonstop flight
Palm Springs, CA - PSP NonstopNonstop flight
Panama City Beach, FL - ECP
Pensacola, FL - PNS
Philadelphia, PA - PHL
Phoenix, AZ - PHX NonstopNonstop flight
Pittsburgh, PA - PIT NonstopNonstop flight
Portland, ME - PWM
Portland, OR - PDX NonstopNonstop flight
Providence, RI - PVD
Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands - PLS
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - PVR NonstopNonstop flight
Punta Cana, Dominican Republic - PUJ
Raleigh/Durham, NC - RDU NonstopNonstop flight
Reno/Tahoe, NV - RNO NonstopNonstop flight
Richmond, VA - RIC
Rochester, NY - ROC NonstopNonstop flight
Sacramento, CA - SMF NonstopNonstop flight
Salt Lake City, UT - SLC NonstopNonstop flight
San Antonio, TX - SAT NonstopNonstop flight
San Diego, CA - SAN NonstopNonstop flight
San Francisco, CA - SFO NonstopNonstop flight
San Jose, CA - SJC NonstopNonstop flight
San Jose, Costa Rica - SJO
San Juan, PR - SJU
Santa Barbara, CA - SBA NonstopNonstop flight
Santa Rosa, CA - STS NonstopNonstop flight
Sarasota/Bradenton, FL - SRQ
Savannah/Hilton Head, GA - SAV
Seattle/Tacoma, WA - SEA NonstopNonstop flight
Spokane, WA - GEG NonstopNonstop flight
St. Louis, MO - STL NonstopNonstop flight
St. Maarten, St. Maarten - SXM
St. Thomas, VI - STT
Steamboat Springs (Hayden), CO - HDN
Tampa, FL - TPA NonstopNonstop flight
Tucson, AZ - TUS NonstopNonstop flight
Tulsa, OK - TUL NonstopNonstop flight
Washington (Dulles), DC - IAD
Washington (Reagan National), DC - DCA NonstopNonstop flight
West Palm Beach, FL - PBI
Wichita, KS - ICT NonstopNonstop flight

[TomK]

It'll be interesting to see whether Alaska/Hawaiian counters this or continues as if nothing happened. HOTPE mentioned the routes Southwest covers. Still, Las Vegas is also a busy hub for domestic and international flights. For instance, flying between Hawaii and Europe might become a real option if flights are routed through LAS to a less touristy place like Hilo.

[kalakoa]

The only problem is, flights out of ITO don't begin until next August. Who knows what kind of economy we'll have by then?

[punikahakaiferret]

Just so aggravating to have to fly all the way over to HNL from ITO to avoid having to deal with the hassle and headache (and time) to get to KOA in order to have a non-stop flight to the mainland any more. Yes, I know I'm preaching to the choir.

Hopefully this shift by Southwest may indeed impel Alaska to start offering non-stops (or at least not flying in the *opposite* direction to HNL and then still having hour(s)-long layovers on top of trying to get between terminals when they are always the very farthest apart from one another.

Ok, enough of my bitchfest! Carry on, PW'ers!

[MyManao]

don't begin until next August...

Considering that the entire tourist industry is in free-fall, and as long as the folks causing it continue in their ill advised efforts to destroy our economy, and ward off any foreign interest in visiting us, I suspect everything the airlines say today about the future is just so much nonsense.. high hopes for greatness while the ship sinks..   

Today The NY Times asks..

From.. https://archive.is/MnaEM (a paywall free version of the article)

How Much More Can the U.S. Travel Industry Take?
Politics and border hassles have chased away foreign visitors, costing businesses billions.

Which begins..

The United States routinely tops the list of foreign travelers’ dream destinations. They can’t seem to get enough of Manhattan’s skyscrapers, the mountains of Vermont, the hedonistic nightlife of Las Vegas, Hawaii’s pristine beaches and the dreamscapes of Disney parks.

But that’s changing.

Steep new fees, travel restrictions, visa hurdles, uncertainty at the border, and President Trump’s aggressive language toward Canada and other countries are all taking a toll.

Postpandemic travel growth has stalled and 4.5 million fewer international visits are expected this year compared with 2024, according to industry estimates.

And that's this year.. when all this started.. next year we, the USA, will be a tourism ghost town. Anyone dependent upon tourism can expect to watch their world shrivel up. Seriously, if you were them would you visit us?

[randomq]

Aside from the real (non-AI spending) economy stalling, Vegas tourism has become very expensive, just like Hawaii. I might use these flights to get to the mainland, but probably not to vacation in Vegas very long...