Hurricane season 2026

[MyManao]

So the premise is Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa protect Big Island from a hurricane..

Protect is a strong word, and although I haven't used it directly I certainly teased TK with my insinuations. I mean, seriously Edge, I am the one that brought the story of the 1871 hurricane to this thread.. I am not, and have never said, they can't happen here..

To be clear, all I have said, and I have said it for years, is that our Maunas effect.. interact with, and degrade any cyclonic system that comes into their vicinity. TK can twist anything to make it so he has another excuse to be a vile human being. That's just what he does. And, admittedly, I toy with him because of it. But all I have done is, repeatedly, point out that the physical properties of a storm in the open ocean change when they come in contact with a land mass such as our's. 

You drop a pebble into a calm body of water it creates ripples. You place a mountain in the path of a cyclonic weather system it creates disturbances. The ripples are symmetrical in the first instance, the disturbance is asymmetrical in the second. And yes this is another oblique model.. but the notion is still the same.. a body interacting with another body has consequences.

And, as I have said.. anyone saying more is just blowing smoke up your ass.

[Durian Fiend]

So the premise is Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa protect Big Island from a hurricane..

Protect is a strong word, and although I haven't used it directly I certainly teased TK with my insinuations. I mean, seriously Edge, I am the one that brought the story of the 1871 hurricane to this thread.. I am not, and have never said, they can't happen here..

To be clear, all I have said, and I have said it for years, is that our Maunas effect.. interact with, and degrade any cyclonic system that comes into their vicinity. TK can twist anything to make it so he has another excuse to be a vile human being. That's just what he does. And, admittedly, I toy with him because of it. But all I have done is, repeatedly, point out that the physical properties of a storm in the open ocean change when they come in contact with a land mass such as our's. 

You drop a pebble into a calm body of water it creates ripples. You place a mountain in the path of a cyclonic weather system it creates disturbances. The ripples are symmetrical in the first instance, the disturbance is asymmetrical in the second. And yes this is another oblique model.. but the notion is still the same.. a body interacting with another body has consequences.

And, as I have said.. anyone saying more is just blowing smoke up your ass.

You said the NWS believes the island does (Protect itself).   I don't understand what your last sentence above means.

[TomK]

So the premise is Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa protect Big Island from a hurricane..

Protect is a strong word, and although I haven't used it directly I certainly teased TK with my insinuations. I mean, seriously Edge, I am the one that brought the story of the 1871 hurricane to this thread.. I am not, and have never said, they can't happen here..

To be clear, all I have said, and I have said it for years, is that our Maunas effect.. interact with, and degrade any cyclonic system that comes into their vicinity. TK can twist anything to make it so he has another excuse to be a vile human being. That's just what he does. And, admittedly, I toy with him because of it. But all I have done is, repeatedly, point out that the physical properties of a storm in the open ocean change when they come in contact with a land mass such as our's. 

You drop a pebble into a calm body of water it creates ripples. You place a mountain in the path of a cyclonic weather system it creates disturbances. The ripples are symmetrical in the first instance, the disturbance is asymmetrical in the second. And yes this is another oblique model.. but the notion is still the same.. a body interacting with another body has consequences.

And, as I have said.. anyone saying more is just blowing smoke up your ass.

You said the NWS believes the island does (Protect itself).   I don't understand what your last sentence above means.

Dropping a pebble into a calm body of water demonstrates how waves propagate. Nothing to do with the Butterfly Effect, how storm tracks are affected, or how the strength of a storm is changed. Frankly, it's just putting out irrelevant things, but maybe something will stick. It's a common tactic by a bunch of groups, including flat-earthers and UFO conspiracy theorists.

Then MyManao writes:

"TK can twist anything to make it so he has another excuse to be a vile human being."

I've not twisted a thing; you have no evidence that I'm a vile human being, nor evidence that supports your claims about the mountains and storms. Once again, you try to create a straw man with an ad hominem. I've lost count of how many times you've done this.

[kalianna]

Time for the Bicker Board!

[TomK]

Time for the Bicker Board!

MyManao already tried that. We're discussing how the Big Island and its mountains interact with storms and hurricanes that threaten the islands. I have no idea why that should be on the Bicker thread other than you think that's where it should be. 

This thread is about the upcoming hurricane season. If you have something to add to it, go ahead, but if you prefer nonsense being propagated by a Dunning-Kruger so-called expert, then leave the thread alone and see what happens. What I see here is a couple of people who don't understand science. One resorts to insults, the other thinks disagreement means it's bickering. Both are wrong.

"I mean, seriously Edge, I am the one that brought the story of the 1871 hurricane to this thread.."

You may have mentioned it in this thread, but others knew about. It's not as if you have brought up some new evidence. It also destroys your argument. The mountains didn't protect the island that time.

[terracore]

Available for shipping to Hawaii for only $7, Costco has "Die Hard" brand (Chinese rebrand, probably Pulsar) 2,000 watt inverter generators available for $349:

costco.com/p/-/diehard-2400w-gasoline-powered-inverter-generator/4000408902

Clean Inverter Power, Safe for Sensitive Electronics
80cc OHV Engine with 2400W Peak / 2000W Rated Output
Lightweight 34 Lbs Design for Easy Portability
Built-In CO Detection for Safer Operation

Brand DieHard
Certifications CARB Compliant
Certifications EPA Certified
Dimensions: W x D x H 15.9 in. x 18.7 in. x 10.6 in.
Engine Displacement 80 Cubic Centimeter
Fuel Capacity 0.63 Gallon
Fuel Type Gasoline
Generator Type Inverter
Model DHD2400iSCO
Noise Level 57 dB
Number of Outputs 4 Output(s)
Online Only Online Only
Peak Wattage - Gasoline 2,400 W
Product Features Automatic Voltage Regulation
Product Features CO Shutoff
Product Features Low Oil Shutoff
Product Features Overload Protection
Run Time at 50% Load 5 Hour
Running Wattage - Gasoline 2,000 W
Start Type Recoil Start
Warranty Coverage 3 Years
Weight 34.2 lb.

[knieft]

I ordered this model a few weeks ago. Returned it. Was obviously used and not anywhere near propane rated running or surge. Helluva time returning as well. After 10 days waiting for “a call” about the return shipping, I just returned to Costco Kona since I was going that way…

Champion is my pick but more expensive. Available at Home Depot recently.

Cheers,
Kirt

[HiloJulie]

Does the 2026 Pacific forecast have anyone concerned?

2026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

Snipped:

NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

[TomK]

A little more concerned than last year, but as concerned as I have been in previous years. We're a very small target for hurricanes, but the more storms that form, the higher the chances we'll be hit by a powerful hurricane. Think of it like a coconut shy. OK, that's a British term, but you can look it up. The idea is to knock a coconut off a stand by throwing balls at it and win a coconut or a cuddly toy. The more balls you pay for and have, the higher the chances you knock a coconut off its stand.

[randomq]

Disaster movie protagonist looks solemnly at his audience, "and we're the coconut."

Hard cut to NOAA offices, where staff has been cut and tensions are rising...

[I think we've got a Hollywood blockbuster on our hands here!]