Hurricane season 2026

[TomK]

Do you know any film directors? I think we have the making of an awful B-movie. I don't know if there are C or D movies, but we should check them out. We'll need an actor who talks about magic mountains, changes his mind, or convinces the hero he's a nutcase, and despite that, becomes the hero and saves everyone. The end of the movie shows the hero holding a coconut, suggesting that paradise will be restored.

[Durian Fiend]

From the Weather Underground: "WLPG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry says that dating to 1950, the chance of a named storm tracking within 100 miles of the Hawaii islands during an El Niño year (35% chance) is 13 points higher than during a neutral year (22% chance)."

[TomK]

You know that a couple of years ago, we had a sort of bet on hurricanes. At that time, I based it on the conditions we had back in 1998, and it was a no-lose bet anyway; I'd pay out whether I got it right or wrong. This year, I'm not willing to make a bet like that. I'm trusting the science on this one.

[terracore]

I ordered this model a few weeks ago. Returned it. Was obviously used and not anywhere near propane rated running or surge. Helluva time returning as well. After 10 days waiting for “a call” about the return shipping, I just returned to Costco Kona since I was going that way…

Champion is my pick but more expensive. Available at Home Depot recently.

Cheers,
Kirt

Different generator.  This is a gas only model.

But FWIW, the wattage rating on a propane capable generator is kind of like the wattage rating on a solar panel.  "Under ideal conditions".  The actual max watts produced using propane are going to depend on the temperature, altitude, amount of propane in the tank, and quality of the propane. On a larger generator there is more headroom for not noticing it.

[knieft]

terracore, you are correct, different model, same size though.

I am familiar with optimistic propane ratings…the generator was lame in my experience. Hope you experience better if you ordered one.

We should stop hijacking thread…

Cheers,
Kirt

[TomK]

I wouldn't worry about hijacking the thread; you guys are providing useful information before the sh*t hits the fan. Just look at the god thread for hijacking. Most of it now is about philosophy, weird incoherent rants, dead and living scientists, and very little about a god.

In the meantime, there's an area of concern WSW of us. The chances of it becoming a storm in the next week are around 80% according to NOAA. It's something I think is worth keeping an eye on.

[Durian Fiend]

I wouldn't worry about hijacking the thread; you guys are providing useful information before the sh*t hits the fan. Just look at the god thread for hijacking. Most of it now is about philosophy, weird incoherent rants, dead and living scientists, and very little about a god.

In the meantime, there's an area of concern WSW of us. The chances of it becoming a storm in the next week are around 80% according to NOAA. It's something I think is worth keeping an eye on.

Yes, worth keeping an eye on.  However, Puna weatherman Durgin says it shouldn't be a concern.  

"Both the GFS and Euro models show an upper level trough diving south near our island beginning next week. The an upper level high to the east of this trough provides a low shear environment near 130W-140W (shear animation). A confluence of factors: a passing tropical wave in the ITCZ (currently located near 125W), a positive pulse in the MJO transiting the Pacific basin, and warm sea surface temperatures are making it possible for a weak tropical low to form near 130W.
If a low forms it would pose no threat to us as it will encounter a hostile high shear environment as it travels northwest."

[TomK]

Thanks for that. Durgin knows his stuff and is certainly more expert in the field than I am. The one that struck me, though, is that I don't recall seeing such a region of instability that far west of the mainland this early in the season (in fact, before the season even started!). NOAA are saying that it has an 80% chance of becoming a storm in the next five days, but unlike Durgin, I didn't bother to check what any potential storm would have to survive to get here.

Still, it's not common to have a storm form in that region this time of year - possibly a result of a very strong El Niño this summer?

[Durian Fiend]

Thanks for that. Durgin knows his stuff and is certainly more expert in the field than I am. The one that struck me, though, is that I don't recall seeing such a region of instability that far west of the mainland this early in the season (in fact, before the season even started!). NOAA are saying that it has an 80% chance of becoming a storm in the next five days, but unlike Durgin, I didn't bother to check what any potential storm would have to survive to get here.

Still, it's not common to have a storm form in that region this time of year - possibly a result of a very strong El Niño this summer?

Ocean temperatures to our south are warmer than usual, as this map from Tropical tidbits shows.  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...obal_1.png

The specific El Nino index graph is:   https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...nino34.png

This link includes both of the above plus more info. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

[TomK]

Thanks for those links, Durian. Just to be clear, I'm not trying to claim there will be a strong El Niño this year; it's known there will be one. I'm just wondering if it's why we're seeing such instability so far off the mainland at this time of year.