Hurricane season 2026

[kalianna]

Patience, lads. Stick with the spaghetti models. Looks like #1 will not be a threat.

[ironyak]

Not to steal Edge's thunder, but which of the spaghetti models is going to stick to the wall? And more importantly, will it be cloudy with a chance of meatballs as well?

https://www.cyclocane.com/spaghetti-models/
   

[kalianna]

Loos like only a bit of burger in 93CP. Time will tell on the other.

[knieft]

Yes, they are cut, painted with sealant, and numbered for efficient installation.

Did you do the cutting yourself? What sealant did you use? How thick of plywood did you use?

I brought my measurements into Home Depot today but they said they don’t do “project cuts”? Anyone know of someplace that would do so?

 I don’t figure I have the needed equipment to do the cuts properly myself (especially considering that I tend to make every mistake possible on my way to becoming an expert on projects I have little experience with and will never do again.) The largest is 48 x 90 inches, which I suppose might be halved to keep it less cumbersome. The window frames have a 6 inch frame on the interior that I plan to use mounting from inside, as there is no glass windows, only screens mounted on the outside. So the panels would be decreased by a 1/2 inch all around.

Is Home Depot the only game in town for this (which it is apparently not)?

Cheers,
Kirt

[ChunksterK]

@Kirt:
Yes, we did the cutting ourselves, and like you, we have some windows that required two piece covers. My research says that is fine, as long they fit tightly together. We used 5/8 inch plywood for ours. We used the affordable Olympic Waterguard clear water sealer because the covers are stored in a dry indoor area and will only be exposed to the elements for relatively short periods should they be used. Olympic is not recommended for long term outdoor exposure, so keep that in mind.

HPM also sells plywood rated for this use, and they quoted us a price slghtly lower than Home Depot. We went with HD, however, because they allow you to select the sheets yourself. HPM pulls them for you, and if you don't like one or more, you have to send them back for switching. Having bought from HPM in the past, I can tell you that you will most likely be sending some back. Not worth the hassle for 50 cents a sheet.

Hope this helps.

[knieft]

@Kirt:
Yes, we did the cutting ourselves, and like you, we have some windows that required two piece covers.  My research says that is fine, as long they fit tightly together.  We used 5/8 inch plywood for ours.  We used the affordable Olympic Waterguard clear water sealer because the covers are stored in a dry indoor area and will only be exposed to the elements for relatively short periods should they be used.  Olympic is not recommended for long term outdoor exposure, so keep that in mind.

HPM also sells plywood rated for this use, and they quoted us a price slghtly lower than Home Depot.  We went with HD, however, because they allow you to select the sheets yourself.  HPM pulls them for you, and if you don't like one or more, you have to send them back for switching.  Having bought from HPM in the past, I can tell you that you will most likely be sending some back.  Not worth the hassle for 50 cents a sheet.

Hope this helps.

Thanks so much!

Cheers,
Kirt

[Durian Fiend]

AI could help with hurricane forecasting. https://deepmind.google/blog/weathernext...XFZzRVdVfg

The tidbits model runs only go out 84 hours, so really don't give any indication what will happen after that.

[MyManao]

Patience, lads.  Stick with the spaghetti models.  Looks like #1 will not be a threat.

I sure agree with that.. especially the patience. I also would caution against being lead down a path that starts with the worst possible and then backs out... like that one that immediately went to cat omg it could mow us down and then backed out incrementally to it could be nothing. When starting with it could be nothing and then add the omg far fetched speculation as an after thought is far more realistic, especially in this particular situation. But then some folks motives are clickbait, eh?

I get no sense of an immediate threat from any of what's up there now.. sure maybe bumbai.. but not at the moment. I follow things via the MK Weather Center.. I like the half globe animated infrared for comparing with the hurricane center's stuff.

[ironyak]

Durian Fiend - The tidbits model runs only go out 84 hours...
Not sure what you mean by the tidbits model, as the site just displays models from various official sources like NOAA, Meteorological Service of Canada, etc, nor the 84 hour limit as the popular ECMWF model can provide forecasts for 360 hours, or 15 days, away.

That Google Deepmind article is just saying that their new AI model can provide the same accuracy at 3 days out that most models can only obtain at 2 days out, which would be gaining a day of accurate storm path and intensity forecasting. The opening paragraphs of their submitted Nature article does a good job of providing some overview and background on the challenges of predicting a storm's path, intensity, and structure.

Regardless, predictions on longer timescales of 5, 10, or 15 days is still in the realm of throwing bones and reading tea leaves, for both humans and machines. Can only try wait, bumbai.

[Durian Fiend]

Durian Fiend - The tidbits model runs only go out 84 hours...
Not sure what you mean by the tidbits model, as the site just displays models from various official sources like NOAA, Meteorological Service of Canada, etc, nor the 84 hour limit as the popular ECMWF model can provide forecasts for 360 hours, or 15 days, away.

That Google Deepmind article is just saying that their new AI model can provide the same accuracy at 3 days out that most models can only obtain at 2 days out, which would be gaining a day of accurate storm path and intensity forecasting...

You seem to be downplaying what the article claims is " a decades worth of meteorological progress".    Also,  ".. Our research has already had real-world impact. During the 2025 hurricane season, our model helped the NHC to make a historic forecast for Hurricane Melissa by predicting the storm’s rapid intensification and landfall in Jamaica. This enabled the NHC to issue an advance warning, giving teams on the ground critical time to prepare..."

Weatherman Harry Durgin is quite impressed by this AI development. 

The animations I saw available at tropical tidbits only run for 84 hours.  So, just another way of saying we must wait a few days to get a better idea what will happen.