Hurricane season 2026

[ironyak]

randomq - Is this "board up your windows" weather in Hawaiian Acres?
I doubt any person or any model is going to be able to predict this impact with much precision for your exact location. Sounds more like a calculation of the effort involved: If it's getting real windy tomorrow morning, how quick can you add the boards? Do you like to work in the heavy rain under time pressure tomorrow or in the lighter rain with some time to spare today?

The latest Google WeatherNext vs ECMWF models shows that same difference between a smooth approach from the east (more wind for Nanawale to Hamakua, touching just on Cat 2 status) versus passing to the south of us and jogging north (more wind for Nanawale to Ka'u). Given the model paths are almost exactly the same till Saturday at 8a, unless something massively changes, it may to be hard to tell what we're getting until the last handful of hours as it passes.
   

Meanwhile, as of 11am TropicalTidbits is saying:
"Tropical Storm #Lala is gradually strengthening today, with central convection consolidating near the center, albeit still ragged in structure. An earlier SAR pass revealed that the wind field remains highly asymmetric, without a complete ring of strong winds around the storm center. The strongest winds are on the north side, estimated at ~60 mph, and located somewhat far from the center. A hurricane hunter aircraft is currently investigating the storm to get a more refined estimate. Given this structure, Lala may not intensify particularly rapidly during the next 12-24 hours, but could still reach hurricane strength prior to reaching the Big Island of #Hawaii, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect."

Guess it's all still very much up in the air ;) (back off to batten down some more hatches)

[sistersue]

Fox news brought its heavy hitter Kupuna (Bryan Norcross) into the studio to report on LaLa.

https://youtu.be/q78AKoh362I?t=422

When the 3D map of Big Island is rotated to expose Hilo, it shows the one-two punch of purple haze heavy rain in the 18"+ bracket that is predicted to smack certain area of Hawaii. It could take months of emergency repairs to deal with the potential damage from this storm.

Shelters will open starting at 6 PM Friday evening.

https://www.hawaiicounty.gov/Home/Compon...s/4617/720

What kind of people go to shelters?  Homeless and the ones in low areas that will flood?  I know it's a stupid question but I'd like to know for sure.  Thanks

[randomq]

What kind of people go to shelters?  Homeless and the ones in low areas that will flood?  I know it's a stupid question but I'd like to know for sure.  Thanks

Lots of people live in tents and tarps in the woods here in the acres.  I also know people who should know better, but have 2x4 rafters 4' on center, and 1/4" ply walls.  None of that will stop a tree limb.

[Durian Fiend]

NOAA national hurricane center, at 11 AM:

"..In fact, the model
trends and latest guidance now support a landfall on the Big Island
on Saturday... Lala is expected to become a category 1
hurricane when it reaches the Big Island"

The Windy TV site I look at has made a recent change reflecting this. Earlier today it showed the Hurricane going south of the island. Now it's showing a hit.

[kalianna]

On a more positive note, spaghetti models had forecast Lala at Category 1 as it passes the island. It now forms just before it arrives but then goes back to tropical storm strength almost immediately.

[Durian Fiend]

Windy now has the center going south and the strongest winds missing us. Be right, damn it!

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Windy now has the center going south

Thanks for posting that! I checked our robot overlords at Google and they moved the path south too - - not much, but offshore, a little. Waiting for the ECMWF update….

[MyManao]

Oh my, the modelers are all having one hell of a field day.. it's gonna hit.. it isn't.. how many noodles does it take to feed them all?

If you want to see a wild model.. graphically, beautifully, displayed.. try earth.nullschool.net's version at

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi...17.81,3609

And using the controls that popup if you click/tap on the word Earth in the lower left corner, go forward in time until, by this model's estimation, it makes landfall in the Pahala area. and go a few frames further.. oh what chaos!

And, by the credits given in the popup, this modeling is being created using the "GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service" data.

[MyManao]

I gathered this from BIVN:

From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center discussion posted at 5 p.m. HST:

Lala has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with most of the deep convection remaining over and north of the center. However, data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the cyclone has strengthened some this afternoon. Pressure observations from nearby NDBC buoy 51004 have also been useful in assessing the cyclone as it passes close to the station. Based on a blend of the aircraft data, buoy observations, and overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. A mid-level high pressure system anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue to steer Lala generally west-northwestward during the next several days. Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the cyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the island’s terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are also possible during this time. After passing near or over the southern portion of the Big Island, Lala could make a subtle turn toward the northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a west-northwestward motion south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the mult-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 h while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Although mid-level dry air continues to be a limiting factor, the inner circulation could become somewhat more compact and organized as Lala approaches the southern portion of the Big Island. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show Lala reaching hurricane strength near the time it reaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the island’s terrain should then disrupt the low-level circulation and result in weakening, with increasing vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level low providing an additional negative influence later in the weekend. Some re-strengthening is forecast early next week as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the middle- to upper-end of the guidance envelope.

Underlining by me for emphasis and to tie back to my answer to 'Tang's question earlier in this thread.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Post #123:
So yeah, it can be said they’re protective.. they have an affect and in most cases that is to deflect

Thank you for also providing the animation of winds proving your point (?), showing Lala traveling to the south of Big Island, then turning almost straight north directly into Mauna Loa.  Saved by the “most cases!”  Totally different than “fairly accurate.” (#128 & #129)

Talk amongst yourself…