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08-15-2026, 06:17 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-15-2026, 06:45 PM by ironyak.)
ChunksterK - the GFS shows a sharp jog to the north, hitting South Point.
Several models have that northward jog, making possible landfall somewhere between South Point and lower HVNP. Let's hope they're all wrong.
![[Image: 151755_5day_cone.png]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/CP01/refresh/CP012026_5day_cone+png/151755_5day_cone.png)
Whole northeast side is taking a beating, power grid wise.
![[Image: Iv1hAPc.jpeg]](https://i.imgur.com/Iv1hAPc.jpeg)
For Puna, it's hard to even get both the details and scope in a single image. Good to keep an eye out for areas affected and check in on people as needed (because AI's schlocky pictures, beguiling words, and best weather guesses ain't going to do that!)
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If the Windy model is correct it looks like this afternoon will feature the strongest winds for Puna.
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NOAA's 9am intermediate statement says Lala is now a hurricane, still headed west at 10mph:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Lala
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Adventurer driving his car around Pāhala, streaming his video to youtube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVy_-PDWSWA
Making history in his Jeep Wrangler.
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The National Hurricane Center's latest discussion suggests interaction with the mountains that some same protect us, will actually pull the hurricane into the island.
"Lala's current motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt, but
that is likely to change later today as the circulation begins to
interact with terrain of the Big Island. Dynamical model fields
suggest that the center may get pulled northwestward into or near
the Big Island later this afternoon while at the same time a
leeside trough or broad low forms west of the island. This may
cause a discontinuous track that is reflected in the official
forecast points or track forecast cone."
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It looks like the ECMWF model was most accurate from about three days out. Once the long range forecasts which many models initially tracked north of the islands played out, and no longer had the second system low complicating the many variables, ECMWF shifted their track south off the coast of South Point. They also indicated that northward jog in the track sooner than other models.
Still the champ.
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We still have grid power and only a brief internet outage in mid HPP. Itʻs pouring rain but minimal wind. Iʻm confused but grateful.
Certainty will be the death of us.
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Barney reports that from 11PM last night to 11AM today, a total of 8.5 inches of rain at the Acres Trailer Park, with what he also says are "very breezy" conditions.
Even though we are on solar, at the moment, HECO is also on. Starlink performing without any outage or weather interference issues.
Now, if I could get him to stop playing this over and over:
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pouring rain but minimal wind. Iʻm confused but grateful.
kalianna,
The storm tracks moved a good distance south since last night. If the storm’s center had touched on South Point (well north of where it actually went) we would have received the strong winds forecast yesterday. Those winds are now offshore, or just brushing our SE coastline:
