2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."

[TomK]

MyManao's claim..

Actually, Tom, my only observation has been you're too emotionally dysfunctional to be capable of impartial observation. And, as such, any claim you make to being a scientist is just gibberish. Otherwise.. whatever man. You can twist words anyway you like.. 

And still, our Maunas disrupt hurricanes, weather systems of any kine, and whether or not you're able to grok it makes no never mind.. Calvin's path as it approached the islands was wholly disrupted, besides all the moisture in its northern hemisphere being busted up, the eye wobbled all over the place and only stabilized again after it left our sphere of influence. But hey.. what would be the point in discussing it with you?

This is the wind history of Calvin. I think others can make up their minds if you're making things up or not.



And again, I refer you to this paper:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journa...0333.1.xml

[kalianna]

Iʻd have to believe my eyes and ears rather than this chart. I watched the satellite time lapse and what I saw was that a well-formed storm fell apart as it approached the island. Also, the chart shows that tropical storm force winds crossed from the cape to Captain Cook but I talked to folks in both South Point and Kapoho and they said the wind never got above 30 mph.

[TomK]

The center of the storm passed well south of us, you could see it in the GOES images. There was a lot of convection north of the storm but the lower levels winds were not so obvious in the GOES images but were quite clear. Remember, those IR satellite images are excellent at showing cold water vapor at upper atmospheres, the thing you get with convection, but the lower-level features are not as obvious.

['elepaio]

" However, believing with your own eyes is fine, but it doesn't mean what you think you saw actually happened. " ......TomK

You getting this folks ?

Trust the Science. riiight ?... Just sayin

[TomK]

The argument seems semantic in nature.  "Protecting" vs "Affecting".  Whatever it takes to keep us out of harmʻs way, eh?

The evidence suggests the islands on this island can help protect the other islands if we get a direct hit from a hurricane. On this island, we will still be affected. Then you look at a storm such as Inicke which devastated Kauai and it may well be due to the wind-shadow effect of the Big Island's mountains. So much for protecting Kauai. I don't think that's semantic at all.

I assume you were here during Iselle?

[TomK]

Do you think telling him that Big Island is protected by Mauna Loa & Mauna Kea because the mountains tear hurricanes apart is the correct reply?

Besides TomK, who said that?

I never said such a thing.

['elepaio]

I agree with you DurianF about saving what they said ..

TomK did indeed said this; in reply..lol

Thats why i quoted, and saved it again for a rainy day ++ to use later as well.

" However, believing with your own eyes is fine, but it doesn't mean what you think you saw actually happened. " ......TomK

Instant classic.

[MyManao]

I never said such a thing..

Oh come on Tom, you are so full of yourself. After all the years you have spent lying to people, putting words in other peoples mouths, claiming to know it all and in fact having the emotional capacity of a five year old bully. Seriously man you tell people all sorts of fantasies about your so called science, and anything else you think will demean them and make you look bigger than all the rest. Dude, you literally spent years telling folks I said this and that about the TMT and it all was just your make believe fantasy of things I supposedly said. It has been pathetic watching you spew lies about everything under the sun while duping those that are too enamored with your “greatness" to ever fact check what you say. And the sad part is you’ve let them.. Mr Edge practically begs you for more. In his eyes you walk on water, could never do wrong, and every word is the sacred truth. When in fact you’re winging it, and he’s too blinded by your song and dance to ever doubt you..

Calvin was wholly effected by our island. The eye didn’t cross over us but it still was impacted by us. All stuff you would have seen had you been paying attention. The path of the eye wobbled significantly as it neared and passed us. And only long before, and after, being near us had its path stabilized to its predominately east to west trend. It used to be easier to access historic data, but I found this the easiest way to get the pic needed to make that point. Here is a screenshot of the evening weather report (Hawaii News Now) showing Calvin’s path with its distinct wobbling around the island..



And even in this image you can see the eye has been separated from the moisture that was so prevalent in the system’s northern hemisphere.. that we all watched in real time so we no need go over it.. 

As to our island’s effect on any cyclonic systems.. all I have said is our land masses are large, and in proportion to the size of a hurricane are consequential. Whether that be in terms of a direct hit to one of the Maunas, or a glancing blow, the island alters the behavior of the winds. And the more direct a hit the greater the altercation.

Even without our Maunas the effect of a landfall on a hurricane is dramatic. For a fuller understanding of the process involved you might like reading.. 

http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/...neandland/

Where in part it says..

By the time the hurricane’s center crosses the coast, the inflowing wind speed has increased to over half the primary circulation’s wind speed, so drier (and often cooler) air is fueling over half the eyewall, resulting in rapid weakening. The expansion of the wind field continues, but now much of the outer part of the hurricane’s circulation is experiencing enhanced roughness over land, so the size of the tropical storm and hurricane strength wind fields begin to decrease and eventually dissipate.


Caption: Comparison of Hurricane Katrina’s wind field. On left, 24 hours before landfall with a peak sustained wind speed of 257 km/h (160 mph) and radius of maximum wind of 26 km (16 miles). On right, Katrina at landfall with a peak sustained wind speed of 189 km/h (117 mph) and radius of maximum wind of 65 km (40 miles). The integrated energy was maintained at about ~115 TJ (terajoule). Wind fields were analyzed from observations using H*Wind (Powell et al., 2010).

And that’s looking at it in relationship to a relatively flat terrain, and in Katrina’s path as mapped above just the peninsula south of New Orleans as the disturbing land, verses our immediately broad and steep and rising really high in a very short distance slopes that can’t help but enhance the effects described.

But no, TomK says that I said blah blah blah.. and to think he wants us to believe he’s a scientist. And even worse.. that some believe him..

[Durian Fiend]

"And still, our Maunas disrupt hurricanes, weather systems of any kine, and whether or not you're able to grok it makes no never mind"

And yet, after 2 links were posted to articles written by numerous scientists and metrologists saying the opposite, you still believe your myth.

My apologies if the following story is a repost.  It's dated 7/19.


https://bigislandnow.com/2023/07/18/myth...-cyclones/


“No,” said John Bravender, the warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu. “The terrain does not protect us.”

But while the mountains don’t stop the island from being struck by tropical cyclones, storms are affected by Hawai‘i’s terrain once they pass over land — just like their Atlantic counterparts.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

MyManao,
Excellent post on the previous page showing and discussing how hurricanes are affected by land masses.  Including how hurricanes can still strike land masses with hurricane force winds even if altered by their proximity to land, flat or mauna.

Full disclosure: I have not seen TomK walk on water.