Kilauea Eruption 12/23/24

[HiloJulie]

Glad you got to see it "live!"

Sure looks spectacular on the cam feed. I'm hoping to get up there tomorrow!

[MyManao]

Ok.. something simple.. with the hopes an idea can be batted around without too much pilikia..

Watching the tilt up at Kilauea’s summit, and keyed in to the current cycles.. so much rapid deflation during an eruptive event followed by so much slower inflation leading up to another event.. and we are now poised to start the whole cycle over again.. maybe she'll erupt today?

But have you noticed those daily cycles.. during the inflation periods.. of a slightly more inflation every day around noon.. almost like clockwork? Little cycles interspersed in the larger inflation cycles?

Here’s a one week view of the inflation.. where you can see that larger rise happening just around noon each day..



And here’s a one month view of the same data with those increases in inflation seen at every mid day point in the plot..



I am assuming that’s the daily diurnal. Once mentioned in this Volcano Watch..

https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/n...nsequences

Where is says..

"One non-volcanic source of tilt is the heating of the ground that happens on sunny days…"

That isn’t often seen unless the volcano is not inflating or deflating.. when it’s ‘flat’ we see it often.. but (I am assuming) because we have an open system without a build up of pressure at its head we are able to see the atmospheric effects superimposed on the inflation. I find it interesting.. 

*Note: The images embedded here are dynamic.. ie they are HVO's most recent, and will change over time..

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

This was from the Park’s Instagram page a few days ago:

USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory suggests Episode 13 of the eruption that began December 23, 2024 could occur within the next four to six days.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DG8zsSXyYUD/...1vaXhxeWFn

[kalianna]

I had noticed the stair step pattern of inflation but hadnʻt equated it with time of day so thanks for pointing that out. The rhythm of the inflate/deflate over the last month looks like someone breathing. Looks like the breath out should be coming soon.

[MyManao]

I find it interesting.. and wonder.. does that change in tilt that happens because of the heating and cooling of the atmosphere actually account for more magma to flow, and if so then the total tilt over time as plotted is directly tied to magma accumulation regardless of the atmospheric contribution? Or, is that illusionary in that there is no increase in flow and as such the overall amount of magma accumulating, or more specifically ground tilting, is less than the end point of the tilt plot suggests? In other words, do we have to subtract all that atmospheric activity to get a true sense of how much magma is accumulating over time?

[kalianna]

But if atmospheric temps afffected tilt, wouldnʻt we see more or faster tilt in the summer, given that whatever else is also going on tilt-wise is simultaneously happening?

[MyManao]

But if atmospheric temps affected tilt..

Seasonal.. I get it but can’t imagine being able to tease it out of the record. There's so much that goes on over time to sift through.

The thing is under normal.. ie closed off from the surface.. circumstances I am not used to seeing tis type of signal when there’s inflation deflation cycles tied to episodic phases of eruptive activity. The only time I see it on a regular basis is when the inflation is flat..

For instance.. here’s the same time periods of tilt, one week and one month, of the summit of Mauna Loa..

One week..



One month..



In which the diurnal is very graphic and the end result is easy to see an average of the daily wave.. unlike Kilauea’s which is rising.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Small breakout starting:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oG5zz9Sjw3E

[kalianna]

Interestings things happening. Small breakouts followed by nothing-- screen goes black, then it starts back smoking again.

[TomK]

I find it interesting.. and wonder.. does that change in tilt that happens because of the heating and cooling of the atmosphere actually account for more magma to flow, and if so then the total tilt over time as plotted is directly tied to magma accumulation regardless of the atmospheric contribution? Or, is that illusionary in that there is no increase in flow and as such the overall amount of magma accumulating, or more specifically ground tilting, is less than the end point of the tilt plot suggests? In other words, do we have to subtract all that atmospheric activity to get a true sense of how much magma is accumulating over time?

I'm not sure I understand the premise here. During the day, the temperature rises, which means things expand, and at night, it cools down, so stuff contracts. This includes rocks and the instruments themselves at the surface. Kilauea's underlying expansion and contraction are due to increases and decreases in the magma pressure beneath the surface. I don't see where the temperature of the atmosphere comes into this.

Are the data from the USGS tilt monitors corrected for diurnal temperature variations?