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+--- Thread: Hurricane season 2016 (/showthread.php?tid=17395)
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - TomK - 08-28-2016
Pahoated wrote:
"What fricking "prediction"? It is a link to a news site that has PROJECTIONS, pisser."
Your "fricking prediction":
"Right behind will be Hurricane Lester, also with a projection line into Puna. It will be arriving next weekend."
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - opihikao - 08-28-2016
quote:LMAO! Aloha, Holonalu. Iwa and Iniki were hell on Kaua'i (went through Iwa...OMG.) Iselle was enough "cleansing" for our island. At least we all know how to survive.
Originally posted by Holonalu
I'll tell you EXACTLY what is going to happen with these two storms in about ten days..
Stand by for updates
JMO.
ETA: Brief update (*Snipped - More at link):
http://khon2.com/2016/08/28/hawaii-island-prepares-for-possible-effects-of-tropical-storm-madeline/
Tropical Storm Madeline has entered the Central Pacific area where our islands are located, and although the latest forecast has the storm tracking slightly south, Hawaii County Civil Defense is starting to get the word out for residents to pay attention to upcoming forecasts and, as you should be during the entirety of hurricane season, be prepared.
The agency has already updated its website with information about the approaching storm with another one not far behind. Emergency management officials say whether we are impacted or not, everyone should have a plan.
There’s a large degree of uncertainty when it comes to Tropical Storm Madeline that John Bravender of the National Weather Service is higher than normal.
“There’s a lot of back and forth, so its hard to even make an estimate as to whether its going to go south or north of the islands,” he said.
With the possibilty of a one-two punch — with Hurricane Lester close behind — Hawaii Island’s interim civil defense administrator Ed Teixeira said they’ve started contacting various county and other agencies to be one step ahead of the storms.
“We may have a very long week ahead of us,” he said. “We’ve got a lot of vegetable growers, fruit growers on the island. We’ve got ranchers and farmers of all types as well, so everybody’s gotta take these two storms seriously.”
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - Holonalu - 08-28-2016
LMAO! Aloha, Holonalu. Iwa and Iniki were hell on Kaua'i (went through Iwa...OMG.) Iselle was enough "cleansing" for our island. At least we all know how to survive.
JMO.
January storm of 1980 is my all time favorite. They didn't even call for rain that day, I had been living on Maui, in Kihei for five years, and all my local Hawaiian buddies were saying, 'Blowin Konas, goin rain'. There is, to this day, a Mercedes Benz in the ocean, off the old pier by Suda Store, washed out there by the stream turned river from the downflow off the crater.
Soo, if it starts blowing kona, po'o maluna!
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - TomK - 08-28-2016
Latest news (based on Aug 28 11pm updates):
1) Although models suggest Madeline may pass south of the Big Island, the uncertainties are large enough that a direct hit on the east coast can't be ruled out. A little more troubling, the intensity forecast has been updated that when it is close to the island it may still be a hurricane. Earlier forecasts had it weakening much earlier. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2016/Hurricane-Madeline
2) Lester is now a strong category 3 hurricane and currently predicted to enter the central Pacific region as a category 2 hurricane, and remain a hurricane as it gets close to the islands. Models are suggesting it might veer north of Hawaii but that's a week away so confidence is low. Another system to keep tabs on.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2016/Hurricane-Lester
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - alaskyn66 - 08-29-2016
Not looking good for Puna at the moment... but perhaps it will swing south as they say.
http://imgur.com/gtRjrAa
..Bad boys,Bad boys what we gonna do...let ya out on bail for a buck or two...
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 08-29-2016
The 5 AM forecast had some good news and bad news. The main forecast track continues to stay south of the islands as Tom noted last night, but if it does Madeline will remain a hurricane. This means we have a much higher chance of 39 MPH winds in Puna (60-70% probability), as well as even stronger 58 MPH winds along the southern coasts of the Big Island (30-40% chance).
- Be pleasant to inefficient workers; give them undeserved promotions. - Work slowly. - Refer all matters to committees for "further study and consideration. - Hold conferences. - Make travel as inconvenient as possible. - Haggle over precise wordings of communications. - Advocate “caution.” Be “reasonable” and avoid haste. (Excerpts from the WWII OSS Simple Sabotage Manual)
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - pahoated - 08-29-2016
quote:Saying the storm is coming this coming weekend is a "prediction"? What a meathead, there is something mentally wrong with you.
Originally posted by TomK
Your "fricking prediction":
"Right behind will be Hurricane Lester, also with a projection line into Puna. It will be arriving next weekend."
Haha, funny how the tempo is changing now that it is Hurricane Madeline and Hurricane Lester. There are also these interesting back-spinners.
Only commented on this topic because it is better to prepare today and tomorrow, rather than wait for the day before.
*Japanese tourist on bus through Pahoa, "Is this still America?*
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - terracore - 08-29-2016
Hawaii county now under hurricane watch. Madeline a cat 3 and strengthening. Lester now a cat 4.
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - HereOnThePrimalEdge - 08-29-2016
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center 11 AM update shows Madeline's track holding steady to the south. Even so, we will certainly receive some strong winds and heavy rain from the storm starting Wednesday afternoon.
- Be pleasant to inefficient workers; give them undeserved promotions. - Work slowly. - Refer all matters to committees for "further study and consideration. - Hold conferences. - Make travel as inconvenient as possible. - Haggle over precise wordings of communications. - Advocate “caution.” Be “reasonable” and avoid haste. (Excerpts from the WWII OSS Simple Sabotage Manual)
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - PunaMauka2 - 08-29-2016
As an alternative to terrorcore's typical survivalist style scare mongering through providing selective information designed to heighten the fear factor, one can rather refer to the professionals for the full forecast picture:
WTPA45 PHFO 292104
TCDCP5
HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016
Madeline has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours, with
infrared satellite images depicting a cloud-filled eye encircled by
a solid ring of deep convection. Except for some modest restriction
in the southern semicircle, upper-level outflow is otherwise
unimpeded and the cyclone has taken on an increasingly symmetric
appearance. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB/HFO/GTW
also indicate a significant increase in intensity, with latest
estimates indicating 5.5/103 kt. ADT from UW-CIMSS indicates an
intensity near 110 kt, while SATCON is near 90 kt. Based on a blend
of this data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been
increased to 100 kt, making Madeline a major (category 3) hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane hunters from
the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron are slated to begin flying
investigative flights into Madeline tomorrow morning, which will
give us valuable information as to Madeline's actual intensity and
size.
The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 300/09 kt, with
Madeline currently on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
ridge. A deep-layer trough lies far north of Madeline, with the
system generally tracking toward a weakness in the ridge caused by
this trough. This is expected to be the case for the next 24 hours
or so, after which time the trough is forecast to fill, and mid-
level heights will build to the north and northwest of the cyclone.
Guidance remain consistent in tracking Madeline toward the west-
northwest in the short term, with a turn toward the west anticipated
to begin on Tuesday as heights build. The updated track forecast is
close to the previous and the GFEX through 72 hours, and thereafter
lies to the right of the previous, close to the latest multi-model
consensus TVCN.
While Madeline is currently near a col in the upper level flow, a
high-level trough is forecast to dig southward toward Madeline
Tuesday and Tuesday night, introducing increasing southwesterly
shear. This, combined with some drying in the mid-levels, is
expected to lead to a gradual weakening trend after tonight. In the
mean time, relatively light shear and warm SSTs may allow Madeline
to intensify a little more, as indicated by SHIPS guidance. The
updated intensity forecast follows the trends presented by the
previous, after accounting for the higher initial intensity.
The latest track and intensity forecast necessitates a Hurricane
Watch for Hawaii County. Depending on the evolution of the
forecast, a watch may be required for additional Hawaiian Islands
later today or tonight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 18.6N 145.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 19.0N 146.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 19.2N 148.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 19.0N 150.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 18.7N 152.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 18.0N 156.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 18.4N 160.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 19.0N 165.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Birchard