Posts: 10,216
Threads: 344
Joined: Apr 2009
Since terracore's recent thread about hurricanes was hijacked, I thought I'd start another. This is about hurricanes in the eastern and central Pacific in 2016.
Although it was a slightly late start, systems are now forming in the eastern Pacific. Agatha and Blas are no threat to us, but a new system seems to be forming behind them. Chances are high it will develop and get a name - Celia. The news this evening also mentioned a couple of other systems might form soon although can't find any reports about those ones right now.
Seems the hurricane season in the eastern Pacific has finally started with quite a bang.
Posts: 1,522
Threads: 13
Joined: Apr 2014
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/w...i?wv+/24h/
May I add the satellite loop?
Community begins with Aloha
Posts: 69
Threads: 11
Joined: Apr 2016
quote:
Originally posted by Tink
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/w...i?wv+/24h/
May I add the satellite loop?
Community begins with Aloha
Nice link!
Cant wait to live in Puna!
Cant wait to live in Puna!
Posts: 10,216
Threads: 344
Joined: Apr 2009
Thanks for the link, Tink.
Blas will be weakening shortly but another system behind it looks almost certain to become organized. Still an awful long way from Hawaii though but will likely become Celia.
TV weather reports are claiming two or three other possible systems after Celia in the next couple of weeks. I'm not certain where they're getting that info from.
Posts: 1,557
Threads: 50
Joined: Oct 2012
Interesting how the computer models cant seem to track Blas. It started out heading way north of hawaii... now they predict a southern swing.
http://i.imgur.com/FRH2Yq4.png
Posts: 10,216
Threads: 344
Joined: Apr 2009
Alaskyn - the actual track of Blas has followed the models rather well!
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/e...map=verify
Posts: 10,216
Threads: 344
Joined: Apr 2009
Darby and Estelle to follow Celia? This is an interesting read:
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa...rynum=3352
Posts: 664
Threads: 67
Joined: Mar 2016
A few hard earned tips about understanding hurricane predictions:
If a hurricane is moving at 10 knots or less they are unpredictable. Often a slow moving hurricane will have multiple models agree, but then suddenly deviate from its projected path.
If it is moving faster than 12 knots, the forecast accuracy goes way up.
In general a hurricane moving 12 knots or less has very poor accuracy past 2 days worth of guidance. For all hurricanes (slow and fast) in 2015 the average forecast error inside 48 hours is about 100 miles 72 hours and later degrade to 250 to 300 miles.
Predictions for all models have improved significantly in the last 10 years and last year NOAA had the full force of its new super computers to crunch data for them.
Further reading:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/
Posts: 10,216
Threads: 344
Joined: Apr 2009
Thank you, Eric1600, the link you provided was a very interesting read. It makes it very clear how much better forecasts have become although they certainly aren't perfect yet.
Posts: 6,214
Threads: 354
Joined: Feb 2006
I am posting the tropical storm preparation thread that was started at the beginning of the season, as that thread has a number of useful links & ideas...and there is a link for an older Punaweb thread that has even more links.... hopefully the ideas will be helpful to both newer residents, and those of us that are trying to make sure we review our storm prep.
http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=22285
