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+--- Thread: Rob Tucker's PMAR Proposal (/showthread.php?tid=5642)
RE: Rob Tucker's PMAR Proposal - PaulW - 05-14-2009
Hawaii County's population census 2000 was 148,677.
The census bureau's estimate for 2008 was 175,784, a growth of 18%.
I doubt very much that'll be reversed in 1 or 2 years.
With more and more people retiring on the mainland, Hawaii's population is guaranteed to keep growing for decades to come.
RE: Rob Tucker's PMAR Proposal - JWFITZ - 05-14-2009
The average retiree on the mainland will be on public assistance. They won't be moving here. Nor buying motorhomes, nor Harley Davidsons, nor beany babies. That model is gone as well. Any sensible study of demographics and asset valuations will bear that out. They didn't do that before about 1995, nor after about 2005, and it would be foolish in the extreme to base our projections on the greatest and most unsustainable period of economic growth in the history of mankind. That's pretty radical cherry picking.
Let me also say for a young woman or man of uncommon talent while it will be a tumultuous time, I also expect it to be the more fruitful and exciting time in quite a while. there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic in spite of it all--personally, if you keep your hope alive--if one embraces the new paradigm. If not, jeez--I'd stain my pants.
RE: Rob Tucker's PMAR Proposal - PaulW - 05-14-2009
Strange, almost every day I read a posting in a forum of yet another retiree packing up and moving to Hawaii. Maybe they're worried about the price of heating oil going up.
RE: Rob Tucker's PMAR Proposal - JWFITZ - 05-14-2009
Maybe so, you can also read about those moving home. Depends on where you'd like to look. One would be buggered indeed to move here and end up on public assistance, however. That would be a bad play, and will deter some. I'd say on this forum the tide is definitely moving out rather than in, especially with that crowd. I'm pretty connected with the next wave of refugees to Hawaii, but they aren't retirees, nor do they share the status quo values of the last 10 years. We'll see that start to manifest itself in the next decade.
Maybe someone out there can find out good current data on the net worth of a 65 year old couple at the 80th percentile. Will that couple move to Hawaii? It's every bit as much a good question as the price of gasoline.
RE: Rob Tucker's PMAR Proposal - PaulW - 05-14-2009
In 2011 the first of the 75-million-plus baby boomers turns 65.
It's a wealthy generation, and even if their stock portfolios have been battered, the numbers alone will do it.
Even without them, Hawaii's population has been growing for decades. Town planners can only work with clear and continuing trends, not personal revelations.
RE: Rob Tucker's PMAR Proposal - JWFITZ - 05-14-2009
Unfortunately with the lack of good studies, or questions, or thought, it seems personal revelations is what we've been working on almost exclusively for most of a decade.
Do "it"?
Which is what?
End up on public assistance? Break the back of the state drawing entitlements? The average baby boomer is dead broke, and was so at the height of the bubble.
Do you have numbers for that? I was asking specifically for the 80th percentile. That's the richest 4 of 5. I know the rest can't afford it, and the 5 of 5 crowd can move anywhere they please, which won't be here. All in all, I DON'T have numbers for it, I freely admit, but numbers exist in the early 2000's and I think we can perhaps interpolate. Actually I don't believe numbers currently exist but would enjoy seeing them if they credibly do and someone can find them
These aren't foo foo silly numbers. Nor ideology. Nor agenda. They impact our future and how we plan. If again, and again--we talk in numbers rather than adjectives we'll craft better policy.
I don't want to see kids go hungry because we build a road. That's my agenda.
Please, let's move the conversation about roads into a good discussion, credible, about a demographics and research based analysis of where Puna will be in 2020. Really. Demonstrate conclusively that a 50 million dollar road is needed, and the rest is details. That's what I'd love to see. We can't talk about roads fairly unless we do. If no one wants to talk about it fairly, well, we can learn from that too.
Frankly, if I feel I can demonstrate that alone progress can be made.
RE: Rob Tucker's PMAR Proposal - Seeb - 05-14-2009
I think part of why Puna is neglected is it lacks credibility. When at a meeting or whatever about nuts a bolts public works projects people start talking about social change and experimentation they totally derail the process. If your talking to a highway guy he's thinking Plan the road, Fund the road,Build the road.when someone starts talking about living in tepees and growing sprouts, he shakes his head thinking your all stoned- walks away - dump the file in the backroom - and goes and finds someone that wants a road built with the tax money your going to pay anyways
RE: Rob Tucker's PMAR Proposal - JWFITZ - 05-14-2009
Good. I don't claim to have the answers. I've questions for sure, and I think they're valid. Let's move the debate into questions and answers, and reject those who haven't credible versions of either, whether roads or sprouts. That would indeed be progress.
Otherwise we're only exchanging the good old boys for the new old boys and that isn't progress.
RE: Rob Tucker's PMAR Proposal - Bob Orts - 05-14-2009
quote:
Originally posted by csgray
Where can we look at these 5 proposals?
Carol,
Townscape’s
http://www.co.hawaii.hi.us/info/puna/PunaRCP/8-PMAR.pdf
Fukumoto’s, Tucker’s, Weatherford’s
http://www.hcrc.info/community-planning/community-development-plans/puna/planning-phase/community-input
RE: Rob Tucker's PMAR Proposal - PaulW - 05-14-2009
Nobody has the numbers for any group's net worth, it changes every day.
Fully one quarter of the US population will reach retirement age in the next 15-20 years; retirees like Hawaii, thus there will be more than ever before. Even if a smaller percentage has the money to move here, the absolute numbers will be greater than ever before.
The scene in 2020 isn't that relevant, it's only 3884 days away. This road needs to make a difference over the next 50 years.