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+--- Thread: Hurricane season 2016 (/showthread.php?tid=17395)
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - ericlp - 07-22-2016
Haha... I was gonna say the winds are refreshing! Didn't want to seem like, I was just being passive. I'm digging the cool breeze! I can turn off the fans!
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - opihikao - 07-22-2016
quote:[
Originally posted by ericlp
Haha... I was gonna say the winds are refreshing! Didn't want to seem like, I was just being passive. I'm digging the cool breeze! I can turn off the fans!
]
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - TomK - 07-22-2016
No significant changes in the 11pm update for Darby other than models are tightening up after the Hurricane Hunters flew into Darby this evening. Unless there's a drastic last-minute change, expect a direct hit from Darby on Saturday.
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - Carey - 07-22-2016
This may not e visible later, but the GOES Water Vapor & Visible image just showed an interesting movement of the storm, to south of the island...(11:15 is when I noticed it, but the moment was around 10pm)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/h5-loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/h5-loop-wv.html
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - TomK - 07-22-2016
Carey - those images are a little misleading. You're seeing where the convection is occurring, not where the center of the storm is. From evening observations via the Hurricane Hunters, the center of the storm is actually moving 280 degrees, just north of westwards.
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - TomK - 07-22-2016
imemine wrote:
"My bet, that is if I was into betting, is that Darby is going around the South side of the island. It certainly isn't going to Hilo or up the Hamakua Coast. And, if there is a turn towards the North it won’t be until it has cleared South Point."
Never mix betting with certainty.
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - TomK - 07-22-2016
Pahala and the coastal area just a few miles north-east of there seems to be taking a pummeling right now when it comes to rain. It'll be interesting to see the rainfall numbers in a day or so.
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - terracore - 07-22-2016
Winds and rain started in Orchidland about 0130 hours and has been picking up steadily. I got up to check the latest forecast before power/internet went out. Looks like its hitting again just SLIGHTLY more south than the previous forecast.
The chance for damaging tropical storm conditions at Hilo is 88 percent, 81 percent at bradshaw field, 51 percent at South Point, and 67 percent at Kailua-Kona.
Based on the latest forecast track, tropical storm force winds over 39 mph are expected to begin overspreading the area early this morning. In some areas, winds will be as high as 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Even higher gusts will be possible over mountainous terrain, through passes, and where winds blow downslope.
Some loose outdoor items will be tossed around. Many power lines may be knocked down, possibly resulting in extended power outages in some areas. Many weaker trees such as albizia will be snapped or uprooted. Some large branches of healthy trees will be snapped. Most newly planted trees and shrubs will be damaged or uprooted.
Poorly constructed homes may sustain minor wall damage and partial roof removal. Other homes may have minor roof and siding damage.
Storm surge and storm tide
On east facing shores, surf of 15 to 25 feet is expected to continue. This may cause significant wave runup and damage on some windward coastal roads. Refer to the high surf warning for more details.
Inland flooding
Rain will start to overspread the windward side of the Big Island early this morning, becoming heavy at times with heavier squalls and embedded thunderstorms. Heavy rain at times will then continue today and tonight. Storm total rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches could lead to significant flash flooding. Refer to the flash flood watch for more details.
Precautionary/preparedness actions
For those under a warning, your preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. In a tropical cyclone, conditions can change quickly. Evacuate if directed to do so by local officials, or if your home is vulnerable to high winds or flooding. Cancel any beach activities until further notice. Persons living near the shore should be prepared to evacuate quickly should building surf threaten. Other outdoor activities, including camping and hiking, should be postponed until after the storm.
People under a watch should continue making preparations and listen for possible warnings.
Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or other local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast.
Secure outdoor objects which can be blown around and cause additional damage. Tropical storms can bring very heavy rain leading to flash flooding. People near streams, rivers, and low- lying flood prone areas are urged to be especially alert to flash flooding.
WTPA43 PHFO 230856
TCDCP3
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 22 2016
Darby's satellite presentation continues to be messy, with deep
convection now on the decline and beginning to wrap around the
south and southwest quadrants. Cloud tops have warmed over the past
six hours and the best outflow continues to be toward the
northeast, consistent with southwesterly shear near 10 kt depicted
by SHIPS. The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron's WC-130J
aircraft did a fine job this evening finding the center of this
system, so we are confident we know where Darby is and how it is
moving. Based on aircraft SFMR data from the first pass through the
center, we will keep an initial intensity of 50 kt for this
advisory. Like before, this is higher than the objective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from the three satellite analysis
centers (HFO, JTWC and SAB). These range from 30 kt to 45 kt.
Interestingly, an 0630 UTC ASCAT pass only found 35 kt within the
northeast quadrant. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission into
Darby will be Saturday morning.
Initial motion is 280/09 kt as Darby slowly gains latitude along the
southern flank of a subtropical ridge. Low pressure farther to the
north is expected to dig southward, weakening the ridge. This will
simultaneously slow Darby's forward motion and deflect it to a more
northwesterly track. Vertical wind shear will also increase,
especially after 18 hours according to SHIPS, likely leading to
gradual weakening from 24 hours and beyond. Track guidance has
changed very little over the past 6 to 12 hours, depicting a gently
curving path across the main Hawaiian Island chain. The forecast
for this advisory track has changed very little and remains well
within the tightening guidance envelope and close to TVCN consensus.
This track takes Darby directly across the Big Island of Hawaii
between 12 and 24 hours.
The intensity forecast is based on the gradual toll that increasing
vertical shear will take on Darby, overtaking any sustaining
effects from marginal sea surface temperatures. However, this shear
is not expected to become strong until day 2. The forecast
calls for slow weakening with Darby maintaining tropical storm
strength through the weekend. This is consistent with the previous
package and represents a compromise between SHIPS, which weakens
DARBY quickly, and GHMI, which keeps Darby as a strong tropical
storm through day 5. It is important to note that weakening
due to land interaction has so far been ignored for that portion of
the track beyond the Big Island.
Interests outside of the watch and warning areas in the Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Darby. Remember,
it is important not to focus too closely on the exact track and
intensity forecasts because the average track error 72 hours out is
near 100 miles, while the average intensity error is about 15 kt. In
addition, the hazards of a tropical cyclone can extend over a broad
area well away from the center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 18.8N 153.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 19.1N 154.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 19.8N 155.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 20.6N 156.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 21.7N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 24.3N 160.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 27.6N 163.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 31.9N 166.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Powell
WTPA33 PHFO 231159
TCPCP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DARBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
200 AM HST SAT JUL 23 2016
...DARBY APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 153.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and
Kahoolawe
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Oahu
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the
progress of Darby. Watches and warnings may be required for
additional islands later tonight or Saturday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 153.5 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). Darby's forward
motion is expected to slow slightly today followed by a turn
toward the northwest tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Darby is forecast to pass over the Big Island
today and Maui tonight. Darby will approach Oahu on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected over the Big Island
starting this morning, and over portions of Maui County this
afternoon and evening. Tropical storm force winds are possible over
Oahu Sunday into Monday.
SURF: Swells generated by Darby are expected to impact the
Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.
RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches with locally
higher amounts...could cause life-threatening flash floods as well
as landslides.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
$$
Forecaster Powell
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - alaskyn66 - 07-22-2016
Winds in Hilo causing heavy rain to fall horizontally.
RE: Hurricane season 2016 - dmbwest - 07-22-2016
3:50 In Hilo by ocean ... No rain ... Where RU AK66?
Posted - 07/09/2016 : 01:17:45 Show Profile Reply with Quote
Nothing in Hilo .. how come you guys have all the fun..
..And the people bowed and prayed... to the neon God they made...
Hears Sirens loud and clear on this day.