Kilauea Eruption 9/29/21

[My 2 cents]

Perhaps annual rainfall of 17" has something to do with it.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Never understood why Kona was so popular.

Sun?
Beaches?
COSTCO! ?

[MyManao]

New eruption in Halema'uma'u crater..

Is the eruption pau.. or maybe just taking a siesta?

As it is, since late yesterday morning, instrumentally, Kilauea's summit (as measured with a tilt meter) started a relatively steep deflation, which since it began has amounted to a mere three microradian loss (so far?), but still seems to have marked the cessation off lava production.. maybe the end of the eruption? Or, maybe it's just a pause? Either way, there does not appear to be an eruption in Halemaumau at this time. 

Remember when we had pauses? Like during the Kalapana era we'd have these deflation events which were like bubbles in the system.. Or at least I, at the time, imagined them as such because as the summit would deflate slightly a few hours later the eruption down on the rift would pause, and the lava flow in Kalapana would stop, and then the next day the whole thing would start up again. Eventually attention turned to Deflation Inflation events, often called DI events, which have a similar deformation signal, and are believed to be associated with magma transfer between the main and the shallower magma chambers under the summit. We've been having a series of tilt signals like those recently..

As of this writing there's no activity apparent, when the clouds clear, on the summit cameras.. https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/summit-webcams

And the summit tilt is more or less flat.. https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/deformation-data

But what the future will bring...? Well, of course it'll bring another eruption.. but when? Tonight? Tomorrow? Next week.. year..

[Wao nahele kane]

New eruption in Halema'uma'u crater..

Is the eruption pau.. or maybe just taking a siesta?
...

Take a look at seismic readings along the rifts. Are there any seismic indications that the Halemua'uma'u reservoir is draining through or into the rift zones? If so, it may be that the reservoir has lost some of its content through subterainian rift dikes.

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This seismic activy indicates magma being ammased near and within the Pahala area. Could be the Halema'uma'u reservoir relief is collecting down under the Pahala area. If so, we could see a rift eruption down in that area, but not likely to happen until the Halema'uma'u crater lava crests to the current level of the craters solidified floor. 

But who knows, it could erupt before that happens but typically the head pressure build up needed to punch through a lower rift area is indicated by Halema'uma'u crater floor level. When the lava in the crater gets to that level, then things start punching through and out of the rift zones. 



   

[MyManao]

This seismic activy indicates magma being ammased near and within the Pahala area..

Those quakes have always been there.. more or less.. and in recent years more.. but have nothing to do with magma movement in Kilauea's edifices. There was a recent Volcano Watch that covered them..

New research sheds light on recent Pāhala earthquake swarms.. here..

https://www.usgs.gov/center-news/volcano...ake-swarms

As to associated seismic activity with the ongoing changes.. the earthquake count is at the summit and down the rift is minimal.. even remarkably so over the last few weeks.. and the tremor at the summit died off to no more than background levels around 4pm yesterday.. maybe 6 hours after the tilt started to drop. None of the changes at the summit are reflected in the rift's stations..

[Wao nahele kane]

This seismic activy indicates magma being ammased near and within the Pahala area..

Those quakes have always been there.. more or less.. and in recent years more.. but have nothing to do with magma movement in Kilauea's edifices. There was a recent Volcano Watch that covered them..

New research sheds light on recent Pāhala earthquake swarms.. here..

https://www.usgs.gov/center-news/volcano...ake-swarms

As to associated seismic activity with the ongoing changes.. the earthquake count is at the summit and down the rift is minimal.. even remarkably so over the last few weeks.. and the tremor at the summit died off to no more than background levels around 4pm yesterday.. maybe 6 hours after the tilt started to drop. None of the changes at the summit are reflected in the rift's stations..

Thanks for the article. From the article, it would appear that none of the hypothesis have been verified thus far, some have already been likely disproven as indicated within the article. 

Unfortunately, there's no monitoring of the flank of Kiluea under the ocean offshore in that area or anywhere else for that matter.
For all we know, the earthquake swarm region may simply be a transfer reservoir that is feeding small eruptions along the flank under the ocean, between the shoreline and Loihi. As a feeder transfer reservoir, it would be subject to pressure variables as lava arrived within it and randomly exited just offshore.
The topography of that area of the flank under the ocean, differs substantially to the north and south of it.

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Hard to say, but yeah, a move from the crater down to Pahala doesn't seem to explain the depth of those two swarm areas down under Pahala area.

Maybe we'll get a reprieve for a hundred years from Kilauea and activities are moving up to Mauna Loa as the seismic indicates. Those shakes have been moving upward towards Mauna Loa Caldera, most recent was only -1 mile depth (above my elevation at 120' by far) just 1.6 miles below the Mauna Loa summit.

Will keep my fingers crossed. Thanks for the update.

[Wao nahele kane]

New eruption in Halema'uma'u crater..

Is the eruption pau.. or maybe just taking a siesta?

Not sure if you've seen this, but it's a great tool to observe the earthquakes under and around the big island in 3d and the bar below for time laps of the chosen time periods. 
I ramped it up to 9,000 quakes to be displayed, changed the depth ratio to max, 10 and altered the time lines to see how things have changed since 2014, etc. Observing from one year to the next, etc. 

Yeah, those quakes under Pahala are a signifigant change and seem to have lead to more activity leading up to Mauna Loa and out towards Loihi.
It would be nice if they had a way to display a quake by size and have it disipate to single pixel within a specified time frame after it occured. 

It's likley defining where the magma reservoirs are located and much of what we consider dike along the Kilauea north rift could also be semi lower reservoir region, maybe the magma up at the Kilauea caldera dropped down between the caldera and upper chain of craters road, there's a collective of activity in that area that's emerged recently. Need the gps data to see if any of that area on upper chain of craters road has moved towards the ocean. 
https://www.interactive-earth.com/earthq...9223000017&minlatitude=18.62282739121481&maxlongitude=-154.48525062341818&minlongitude=-156.52016273279318&starttime=2000-08-05&endtime=2021-12-09&minquake=1&depth=5&size=4&limit=9000&rate=10&coords_selected=1&display_width=720&display_height=480&zoom=7

[AaronM]

So, could South Point possibly become yet more southern?

[Wao nahele kane]

So, could South Point possibly become yet more southern? 

If you're referring to my mention of upper chain of crators road...
The Kilauea North rift has an averaged centerline that composes the dike region. The flank of the North rift on the side of its centerline that abutts Mauna Loa is relatively locked in position due to the mass of Mauna Loa. The opposite side of the centerline, the makai flank has nothing keeping it locked in place horizontally. So, when the dike floods with magma, the magma pushes against the dike walls, spreading them apart, the mauka flank stays relatively fixed while the makai flank is pushed out towards the ocean. This is partially why some areas along the red road have become submerged or nearing submersion in the ocean, particularly noticable before fissure 8 buried the section just north of Pohoiki.

Before chain of crators roads hairpin turn that descends down to the ocean, above that area, there has been a fair amount seismic activity, indicating magma filling in a dike or a sub reservoir from the reservoir above at the caldera area. As the region fills with magma, the magmas displacement upon the flanks would initially push that area around the roadway and below, out towards the ocean.

South Point is part of the Mauna Loa Southern rift. Each side of that rift abutts ocean, except where it abutts Kilauea. The two sides of that rift would essentially move equally outward upon it's dike flooding with magma, East and West, not South, not unless its rift erupted and lava inundated South point and added more lava to the South. Otherwise, our plate drifts North West, taking all the Hawaiian islands and South Point along with it.

[AaronM]

Thanks!