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2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."
(03-21-2024, 05:23 PM)AinaAKai Wrote: Why don't we start a 2024 hurricane thread instead of using this old busted thread?
What's busted about it?  There's an ongoing discussion regarding El Nino effects on rainfall for our area, in case you didn't read previous posts.   And BTW, you're welcome to start a 2024 hurricane thread although it seems a bit early for that.

And now, back on topic, NOAA just came out with their new 30-90 day forecasts for the Hawaiian Islands.  It's calling for a 60% chance of less than normal rainfall through the summer.

For Jan/Feb Hilo recorded 50% of normal rainfall.   https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p...xhw40.html
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The reason weʻre still on the 2023 thread is that the Pacific Hurricane Center hasnʻ t yet issued its prediction for 2024. Look at the date of the first post in this thread.
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For some reason I still check my iPhone weather app every morning.  It’s almost always wrong.  I talk to myself when I open the app, “what do The Weather Liars have to say for themselves today?”  Half the time it predicts rain will stop in 12 minutes, but I’ve already checked my window - -  blue skies and sunrise.  Hope may be on the way for hard to predict microclimate areas like Hawaii.  Google has been working on AI weather forecasting, hopefully Apple isn’t far behind:

https://blog.research.google/2024/03/gen...ainty.html
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