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It's dry now, going to get drier, and the hurricane season could be longer this year.
After a dry summer, our winter "wet" season isn't expected to be very wet.
That is the prediction from the National Weather Service wet season outlook.
"Our wet season hasn't started essentially," stated National Weather Service Hydrologist Kevin Kodama.
He monitors rainfall around the state, and says he's seen rainfall amounts decline over the years.
"The overall trend is definitely down. It is gradually, slowly going lower."
https://www.kitv.com/news/hawaiis-wet-se...0af2d.html
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Hopefully not too dry. Here's the official NOAA version:
: Kevin Kodama FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Kevin.Kodama@noaa.gov October 18, 2023 808-973-5269
Summary of the dry season (May through September 2023) ● Statewide: Most locations had near to below average rainfall. o The 2023 dry season started a bit late, but drought developed in June, then spread and intensified through the rest of the dry season. Severe drought (D2 category, U.S. Drought Monitor map) seen in all four counties by the end of the dry season. o Drought became extreme (D3 category) in leeward Maui and localized areas on the Big Island at the end of the dry season. o Worst impacts were on Maui and the Big Island, with large brush fires on both islands, especially on August 8, and poor pasture conditions. ● 8th driest dry season in the last 30 years (based on rankings from 8 key sites). o 2015 dry season was the wettest in the last 30 years. o 2010 dry season was the driest in the last 30 years.
Outlook for the wet season (October 2023 through April 2024)
● NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC): El Niño developed in the spring and intensified during the summer. The current El Niño is likely to peak as a strong event and continue into spring 2024 with a 3 in 10 chance of a “historically strong” event (e.g. 1997-98, 2015-16). ● Climate model consensus favors large scale below average rainfall through the entire wet season. ● Widespread moderate drought (D1 category) with embedded areas of severe drought (D2 category) to exceptional drought (D4 category) o Potential for more than 40 percent of the state to be in severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) by the end of February. o Drought expected to continue into the 2024 dry season. ● Sectors sensitive to short term rainfall deficits likely to have the most severe impacts. o Agriculture: Non-irrigated crops and pastures. o Water supply: Systems utilizing surface water inputs, and residents on rainfall catchment systems. o Brush fires: “Out of season” fires due to continued presence of dry fuels. Red Flag days possible late in the wet season as the potential for stronger winds increases. ● Other impacts o Higher likelihood of large north shore surf events, especially in January and February.
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The current El Nino looks similar to the 97-98 event. However, I don't think you can rely on what happened last time. The climate has changed in the last couple of decades and you always have that random effect (e.g., butterfly effect) that is impossible to predict. I won't be surprised if we get a winter drought but whether it'll be the same as the 97-98 winter isn't known.
