2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."

[kalianna]

Iʻve been checking several sites. Windy and Wunderground say max sustained winds 30 mph. Others, 50 mph. So where is this thing? Just light rain and no wind so far. Satellite pictures look like it should be here.

[terracore]

466
WTPA31 PHFO 190538
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Calvin Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032023
800 PM HST Tue Jul 18 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CALVIN APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND...
...IMPACTS IN HAWAII COUNTY ARE IMMINENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 154.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of
Calvin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Calvin was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 154.1 West. Calvin is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the
forecast track, tropical storm conditions are imminent and will
spread over Hawaii County this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Calvin is expected to remain a tropical storm over the next
36 hours, and then will weaken quickly afterward.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Calvin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header TCDCP1 and WMO header WTPA41 PHFO.
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/HFOTCDCP1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area starting this evening. Preparations for tropical storm
force wind impacts should already be completed for persons
in Hawaii County.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts through Thursday are
forecasted to be 4-8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches
possible, mainly along the windward slopes and southeast flank of
the Big Island of Hawaii. Storm total rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches
are expected on the windward areas of Maui, and 2-4 inches elsewhere
in the state. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding
and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Calvin are expected to begin spreading
across the main Hawaiian Islands tonight. This will lead to a rapid
increase in surf along east facing shores, with high surf continuing
into Wednesday. This elevated surf will likely cause
life-threatening conditions along exposed shorelines. Please consult
products from your local weather office for details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HF...0538.shtml

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

So where is this thing?

Strongest part of storm will be between 8 PM - 3 AM.  
I’m in lower HPP, and expect highest winds of 30-35 mph.  Kapoho, Kalapana, Hawi (Kohala) higher.

So far, so good.

[TomK]

Just as an aside as it's been mentioned in the thread:

"Myth busted: Maunakea, Mauna Loa do not protect Big Island from tropical cyclones"

"“As a result of this long absence of hurricane impacts, a number of myths have arisen such as ‘the volcanoes protect us,’ ‘only Kaua‘i gets hit’ or ‘there is no Hawaiian word for hurricane,'” says the research paper: “Hurricane with a History: Hawaiian Newspapers Illuminate an 1871 Storm.” It was co-written by Steven Businger, a professor of meteorology at the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa with a Ph.D. in atmospheric sciences.

The authors said if a similar storm of the same intensity were to happen today, the destruction would be far greater.

But maybe that hurricane was an aberration. Is it possible that the myth is right? That the two monoliths rising out of the middle of the Pacific Ocean do protect the island from tropical cyclones?

“No,” said John Bravender, the warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu. “The terrain does not protect us.”

But while the mountains don’t stop the island from being struck by tropical cyclones, storms are affected by Hawai‘i’s terrain once they pass over land — just like their Atlantic counterparts."

https://bigislandnow.com/2023/07/18/myth...-cyclones/

[kalianna]

I understand. I donʻt disagree. And yet if you look at Windy youʻll see a small buffer zone of low winds at the coast around the windward side of the island, expanding on the leeward side. Whatever is causing this, Iʻll take it.

[MyManao]

Whatever is causing this, Iʻll take it.

Just don't fall pray to Tom's nonsense and you'll be fine..

[TomK]

Whatever is causing this, Iʻll take it.

Just don't fall pray to Tom's nonsense and you'll be fine..

This isn't my "nonsense". I suggest you contact the scientists involved in the study and suggest to them it's their nonsense and post their responses.


https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journa...0333.1.xml

['elepaio]

"No one cares about your opinion"

TomK's, out of the blue, inprovoked, vitriolic and nasty reply last night when i posting nice info about NAS Pool and paging Carry on my thread.. Soon joined in by our newest STD poster. These people dwell and seemingly feed on negativity and are a cancer to PW. JMO . Cancer gets cut out... Watch next folks. They cannot control themselves when called out ..

MM ..maybe we don't agree on everything but I for one agree with you here ..nonsense is real.

Back on topic:.

Real time reply from town:
8- -9:45 + a rain increase, breeze felt more but nothing more ..hope thats it . No '" wind " to speak of.

God bless .






.
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[TomK]

Winds are up to 75 mph at Mauna Kea's summit. The storm center is SE of us but the main area of convection is still offshore but directly east of the island.

[kalianna]

So to what do you attribute the calm along our coast? Max wind here (mid-HPP) has been 26 mph.