2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."

[HiloJulie]

"How is El Nino here to stay? We know the climate cycles between El Nino and La Nina so how does El Nino continue beyond the usual cycle?"

My apologies. Poorly written on my part. 

I meant to say El Niño is here to stay until spring of 2024 - as was referenced in the article you posted first.

[TomK]

Thanks for the clarification.

[terracore]

So, how about something more current?

https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/202...o-persist/

The forecasters are predicting a dryer than normal “rainy season” due to a strong El Nino.  I tend to agree because droughts at this time of year do tend to happen in El Nino years.  The longest drought I have seen here was 40 years ago during a strong El Nino event, and it was quite scary.  Fires everywhere.  

I’m not proposing a wager of any kind.  Just hoping that you will disagree…and be right.

I gotta say... I'm not impressed by this "drought" of late.

[kalianna]

Not for now. But let's discuss this again in a month.

[TomK]

In the 97/98 El Nino season, the lack of rainfall only really started in the new year and the emergency was announced at the end of January 1998. We're still not in full El Nino conditions, so current conditions do not predict what will happen a month from now.

[My 2 cents]

Personally, I’m happy with “drier than normal” conditions.  This is Puna after all.  It’s the extremes that concern me.  I’m thankful for the rain that we’re getting now.  If we do go into a dry spell soon, at least we won’t be starting from the conditions we had in November.

[TomK]

Can't argue with that, and we also know that when there's a drought getting water delivered to your catchment tank can take some time. Just something to think about and possibly plan for.

[Durian Fiend]

So, how about something more current?

https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/202...o-persist/

The forecasters are predicting a dryer than normal “rainy season” due to a strong El Nino.  I tend to agree because droughts at this time of year do tend to happen in El Nino years.  The longest drought I have seen here was 40 years ago during a strong El Nino event, and it was quite scary.  Fires everywhere.  

I’m not proposing a wager of any kind.  Just hoping that you will disagree…and be right.

I gotta say... I'm not impressed by this "drought" of late.

Looks like a safe bet that Puna will end December with a lower than normal rainfall total for the month. Even with the big storm at the end of November, the month's tallies were below average for most locations in East Hawaii. 

Also, what Tom said...

[kalianna]

I predict that we will not have a drought in January.

[Durian Fiend]

I predict that we will not have a drought in January.

The Puna weather guy on Facebook says it will be dry for the next one, two or 3 weeks.  So, I predict that we do.