2024 Hurricane Forecast & Season

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Overall, there is a 50% chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity. The outlook also indicates a 30% chance of a near-normal season and 20% for an above-normal hurricane season across the central Pacific hurricane region.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-p...e%20region.

[ChunksterK]

This is good news, but remember, it only takes one to ruin your year. Be prepared!

[terracore]

I'm still drying out from their "drought" forecast.

[Durian Fiend]

NOAA long term forecast is not changing tunes. 60% chance of below normal through the summer. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p...xhw40.html

[kalianna]

Harry has spoken: http://punaweather.org/

"The GFS has been showing a vertical shear lowering to our southeast in a week or so (1st chart). As such it's been showing various solutions where a small tropical low forms in a westward moving wave nearer the equator (2nd chart). Sea surface temperatures continue to rise to our east and we could be at risk from the southeast as 26C temperatures extend nearly to our coast (3rd chart).

Models several days or a week out are not accurate, unless they happen to get lucky, but that's irrelevant. They do however give insights into the larger picture. Based on the model trends it looks like we're beginning our hurricane season."

[Durian Fiend]

NOAA long term forecast is not changing tunes.  60% chance of below normal through the summer.  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p...xhw40.html

June and July were well below average for rainfall in most (every?) Puna location.

[terracore]

HONOLULU (Island News) -- Approximately 1050 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, a broad area of low pressure is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system, currently moving west-northwestward at around 10 mph, is situated in an area with marginally favorable environmental conditions.

Forecasters suggest that while the system is still disorganized, there is a potential for some development over the weekend or early next week. The conditions could become more conducive for development as the system continues on its current path.

Residents of Hawaii should stay informed and monitor updates from the National Weather Service, as this system has the potential to evolve into a more organized tropical disturbance in the coming days.

https://www.kitv.com/news/local/tropical...d74ce.html

[kalianna]

My go to site for watching hurricanes form and watching their paths is https://www.cyclocane.com/spaghetti-models/

[terracore]

Long range forecasts show possibility of dual tropical cyclones in Central Pacific

https://www.kitv.com/news/long-range-for...cb1d8.html

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

August 20, 2024

… two disturbances over the western portion of the
East Pacific basin. These systems are expected to merge tonight,
and gradual development is anticipated after they merge. A tropical
depression will likely form during the next day or so while it
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. the system is then
expected to strengthen as it moves across the central pacific basin
late this week and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend
or early next week.

1. While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor
this disturbance. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac