There are now 20 brand new homes for sale in HPP.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Here’s the latest real estate sales data for July 2024:

https://www.alohasothebysrealty.com/Mark...ort-Hawaii?

[Punatang]

Thanks Edge.  The median price fools a great many fools.  Otherwise the data is useful.

This s Bloomberg today.  Hawaii is in the "west" segment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...-rate-cuts

This month, 33% of builders reported cutting prices, higher than the 31% who did so in July and the highest this year, according to NAHB. The average price reduction remained at 6% for the 14th month. The share of builders reporting using sales incentives, at 64%, was the highest since April 2019.
Mortgage rates, which track US government securities, have dropped from last year’s highs on prospects the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September from their current two-decades high. Thirty-year mortgage rates fell to just above 6.5% this month, back to May 2023 levels, although still way above their pre-pandemic levels.
Builder sentiment in August fell in the Northeast and the South, and was unchanged in the West and Midwest.


This is Fortune last week reporting on a Gallup poll.  Home buyer sentiment is at a record low. 

https://fortune.com/2023/05/16/is-now-go...ecord-low/

The survey not only takes into account the overall health of the housing market, according to Gallup, but also whether or not Americans believe housing is still a good investment. For most years going back to 1978, at least half of Americans have had confidence in that. But that’s changed dramatically since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Just 21% of U.S. adults say now is a good time to buy a house, according to a new poll from Gallup. That’s the lowest homebuyer sentiment has ever been in data going back to 1978, when the organization first asked Americans the question. It’s also the second year in a row that sentiment has hit a new low—last year, just 30% of homebuyers thought the housing market was good for buyers.

To put in perspective how rapidly the mood has shifted, the record low before those two years was 50%, and that just happened in 2020.

[Punatang]

More good news from Bloomberg,  you may need to pause ad blocker or VPN to watch video.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20...2020-video

[Punatang]

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I follow the markets, and if I had to take a guess at the future it looks generally positive. - edge

Likewise and my normalcy bias wants me to agree wholeheartedly.  Seems like so much if it is up to The Fed, CPI, PPI, QE, QT, Repo markets, fake job reports that get revised bigly every month after the juice is drunk, blah, blah, blah.  - punatang

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The markets follow the reports that our tax dollars pay for.  Unfortunately bad actors turn our jobs data & reports into propaganda to make their "nomics" look better.  Enjoy the 2nd largest jobs report revision in history.  818,000 fake jobs from several of the highest paying sectors were all just smoke and mirrors.  Pure propaganda.  Over half of the supposed jobs created weren't real.  It's hard to know when the sky is falling when your tax dollars are misappropriated to keep you misinformed.  

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm

Standby for the effects of this on house prices in HPP.

The largest revision ever, in 2009 was only slightly higher.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

I follow the markets, and if I had to take a guess at the future it looks generally positive. - edge

My quote is from April 15.
Here’s the Dow Jones from that date until today.
Can the market go down now? Sure. It can always go down since the undefined, undated future is infinite. But the last four months of future were “generally positive.”

[Punatang]

but the last four months of future were “generally positive.”  - edge


For sure, and in no small part due to the fake jobs reports.

I wasn't calling out your quite prescient prediction Edge.  I only had your quote in the post for context.  

[HiloJulie]

I don’t think the revised jobs report from April of 2023 thru March of 2024 showing a decline of 818,000 jobs nationwide will have much of an effect on HPP home prices, but one would think that there could be 50 to 100 available school bus drivers statewide. 

[ironyak]

You can have accuracy or you can have speed, but you can't have both at the same time. For anyone who actually cares how statistical sampling works and how BLS does their reporting (from 2013 before the "conspiracy of Bidenomics", or whatever the talking points are) - https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/re...umbers.htm

Something, something, HPP's housing market is FUBAR, SNAFU, etc. Maybe housing should be for living in and not as a financial investment tool? Whispers of 2008 on the tropical storm breezes...

[Punatang]

It is, statistically, extremely notable that in every instance, the errors in the data  are in favor of a more robust, albeit artificial, economy.

[ironyak]

punatang - in every instance, the errors in the data  are in favor of a more robust, albeit artificial, economy.

But again, that's not true. Sometimes the numbers are over-counted, sometimes under-counted. Statistical sampling is hard - feel free to share your knowledge on how their methods could be improved. Instead, you're focusing on this recent slice of data and trying to read some nefarious intent into it (because blue team bad? deepstate swamp? corporate misreporting data?- please elaborate the conspiracy at play in this "propaganda")

This 2011 article from the Philadelphia Fed looks at ~50 years of BLS revision's to nonfarm payroll employment. See page 5 for a sample of both positive and negative revisions, or page 7 for the 50 year graph of almost equal revisions up and down, with the takeaway - "It also cautions us against placing too much weight on very early, sometimes unreliable estimates of macroeconomic data."

You want to help HPP's struggling real-estate market? Sell any property at 50% discount to a family that actually will live there and participate fully in the community at jobs and schools. It'll help set a new lower price benchmark and lead to inter-generational stability for the local economy. Sacrifices must be made for the sales line to go up!

ETA: Fixed link - thanks