Kilauea Eruption 12/23/24

[MyManao]

Formal prediction:  The current eruption will end.

OMG, P'tang, do you have the proper authority to make predictions?

[leilanidude]

Formal prediction:  The current eruption will end.

OMG, P'tang, do you have the proper authority to make predictions?

You need to cite your sources, says that scientist.

[kalianna]

Love the new camera angle. V3. Is that new?

[MyManao]

Love the new camera angle.  V3.  Is that new?

Hey, thanks for this.. I never saw, and the page says it started streaming earlier today.. 

This is from the same position as a still feed we've had for a long time, and yes it's a great perspective!

[TomK]

Formal prediction:  The current eruption will end.

That seems like a decent prediction. It's not very useful, but it's hard to contradict.

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Formal prediction:  The current eruption will end.

OMG, P'tang, do you have the proper authority to make predictions?

You need to cite your sources, says that scientist.

Are you and MyManao claiming Punatang's prediction is wrong? I share Punatang's formal prediction. Given Kilauea's history, I also predict the current eruption activity will end. It's not a formal prediction, but it's my prediction.

[TomK]

Formal prediction:  The current eruption will end.

OMG, P'tang, do you have the proper authority to make predictions?

Just curious, but what's the "P'tang" and "proper authority" stuff about? Why not use the name "Punatang"?

[Punatang]

Humbly submitted:

Update at 5:03 p.m. May 16: Kīlauea put in a little bit of overtime Friday during Episode 22 of the ongoing eruption in Halemaʻumaʻu Crater at 3:29 p.m., turning in 10 hours and 16 minutes of another awesome display of high lava fountains from the north vent in the southwest portion fo the crater before abruptly clocking out for at least the weekend...

...Episode 22 lasted 10 hours and 49 minutes in total after beginning at 4:40 a.m. Friday with low dome fountains and continuous overflows from the north vent.  

https://bigislandnow.com/2025/05/16/upda...pisode-22/


PS: Just don't call me late for laulau, Laulau.

[Moderator 2]

There’s some activity starting.  Link to all three video feeds:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCeXH8GZ...Ar45AvupOA

[kalianna]

https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/s...ta-kilauea

Quite a different curve on this one. Now? Not now?

[MyManao]

Quite a different curve on this one.  Now?  Not now?

Yep, this round of inflation is as interesting as they’ve come.. and again highlights the question of the effect of the diurnal. Is it real change in mass, or just the surface of the earth rising and falling?

The interesting thing, if we look at the entire inflation cycle (here it is from the beginning of the cycle to yesterday on the one week plot)



is that it started out as normal, and maybe a slight bit more aggressive, as most past inflation cycles in that it almost drowns out the diurnal, and fairly steadily inflated through the first few days (5/17 and 5/18), but then it goes flat. For the first few days of the greatly decreased inflation (5/19 and 5/20) the diurnal effect is clearly seen as steps in the inflation bracketed on either side by relatively flat lines. But still we can infer a little inflation in that the diurnal doesn’t drop down on the back side, the afternoon side of the cycle. And then, since the 21st, we now have a truly flat signal with a clear diurnal with both the rise and fall corresponding to the heating and cooling of the surface as if the magma is in balance with the environment. There’s no incoming, no outgoing, it’s just sitting there.

One thing of interest that is, seemingly, of little significance is that little drop, a minor step, in the late afternoon/early evening of 5/17. I’ve seen it now for 4 or 5 cycles.. always that little drop, always about a day, more or less, after the end of the last event.. the tilt takes that little step. Why, what it means, who knows, but it’s been there for a while so I mention it.

As to what all this means? Your guess, my guess, they are as good as any. But it does suggest a diminishing of the overall thrust, the energy associated with this series of eruptions, in that the linear inflation until it pops over and over again, is now changing and has quiet periods of inactivity, which appear to becoming more frequent and longer in duration, mixed in.

Something to note.. after active phases HVO reports volume of melt erupted, and when we look at those numbers and compare them to the amount of tilt changed it comes out to about 380,000 cubic meters per mircroradian. Which when compared to past events is a relatively small volume change per cycle..