NOAA forecasts near-to-below average central Pacific hurricane season for 2025
HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its outlook for the 2025 hurricane season Thursday morning. The central Pacific hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30.
One to four tropical cyclones are forecasted to form or move into the central Pacific basin this hurricane season, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center director Chris Brenchley said.
This is considered to be a near-to-below average outlook, with a normal season amounting to 3-4 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific.
Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
“That doesn’t mean that all of them will affect Hawaii so it means that you need to be prepared. Even a below-normal season, if we have something that comes right at the islands, we really have to be ready for that,” explained Robert Ballard, science and operations officer at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
The central Pacific is located north of the equator, between 140°W and the International Date Line.
The forecasting office is also predicting:
In a neutral phase, average sea surface temperatures are found near the equator. An El Niño in the Pacific Ocean usually indicates higher than average tropical cyclone activity due to warmer sea surface temperatures.
During the 2024 hurricane season, a La Niña phase was present. La Niña typically inhibits tropical cyclone activity. This is due to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures and increased wind shear near the island chain.
Forecast and communication improvements this season
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center are extending forecasts a day longer on the sustained hurricane-force wind field (74 miles per hour) from 48 to 72 hours.
New this year, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center will be able to issue potential tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare. Storm surge is the water pushed onto shore by the winds swirling around a hurricane.
Beginning this year, the National Weather Service will provide storm surge flooding forecasts for the main Hawaiian Islands (Kauai County, Oahu, Maui County, and Hawaii County) so that county emergency managers can better warn coastal residents and businesses.
NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service will offer a new tool that uses satellite observations to help better predict tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. The tool is now available for both the Atlantic and Central Pacific basins.
2025 dry season outlook
During the press conference, NOAA also discussed the 2025 dry season outlook for Hawaii.
Kauai and Oahu are forecasted to see above-normal precipitation. Hawaii Island is forecasted to receive below-average precipitation. Maui County has equal chances for below- or above-average precipitation.
“The good news for Oahu and Kauai is we did see a bunch of rain over April, so that’s going to help delay the onset of drought and wildfire conditions there,” said William Ahue, NOAA National Weather Service Honolulu meteorologist.
“Unfortunately, drought conditions do continue across large portion of Maui County and the Big Island which will lead to further worsening of drought over there and also increased fire weather conditions,” Ahue said.
How to prepare for a storm
Despite experts predicting a below-normal hurricane season, the emphasis of preparedness and staying up to date with the latest information. Brenchley also addressed the importance of having a plan in place in the event a hurricane or tropical storm should occur.
The press conference also included:
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/app/2025/0...n-outlook/
HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its outlook for the 2025 hurricane season Thursday morning. The central Pacific hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30.
One to four tropical cyclones are forecasted to form or move into the central Pacific basin this hurricane season, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center director Chris Brenchley said.
This is considered to be a near-to-below average outlook, with a normal season amounting to 3-4 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific.
Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
“That doesn’t mean that all of them will affect Hawaii so it means that you need to be prepared. Even a below-normal season, if we have something that comes right at the islands, we really have to be ready for that,” explained Robert Ballard, science and operations officer at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
The central Pacific is located north of the equator, between 140°W and the International Date Line.
The forecasting office is also predicting:
- A 50% chance of near-normal activity.
- A 30% chance of below-normal activity.
- A 20% chance of above-normal activity.
In a neutral phase, average sea surface temperatures are found near the equator. An El Niño in the Pacific Ocean usually indicates higher than average tropical cyclone activity due to warmer sea surface temperatures.
During the 2024 hurricane season, a La Niña phase was present. La Niña typically inhibits tropical cyclone activity. This is due to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures and increased wind shear near the island chain.
Forecast and communication improvements this season
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center are extending forecasts a day longer on the sustained hurricane-force wind field (74 miles per hour) from 48 to 72 hours.
New this year, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center will be able to issue potential tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare. Storm surge is the water pushed onto shore by the winds swirling around a hurricane.
Beginning this year, the National Weather Service will provide storm surge flooding forecasts for the main Hawaiian Islands (Kauai County, Oahu, Maui County, and Hawaii County) so that county emergency managers can better warn coastal residents and businesses.
NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service will offer a new tool that uses satellite observations to help better predict tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. The tool is now available for both the Atlantic and Central Pacific basins.
2025 dry season outlook
During the press conference, NOAA also discussed the 2025 dry season outlook for Hawaii.
Kauai and Oahu are forecasted to see above-normal precipitation. Hawaii Island is forecasted to receive below-average precipitation. Maui County has equal chances for below- or above-average precipitation.
“The good news for Oahu and Kauai is we did see a bunch of rain over April, so that’s going to help delay the onset of drought and wildfire conditions there,” said William Ahue, NOAA National Weather Service Honolulu meteorologist.
“Unfortunately, drought conditions do continue across large portion of Maui County and the Big Island which will lead to further worsening of drought over there and also increased fire weather conditions,” Ahue said.
How to prepare for a storm
Despite experts predicting a below-normal hurricane season, the emphasis of preparedness and staying up to date with the latest information. Brenchley also addressed the importance of having a plan in place in the event a hurricane or tropical storm should occur.
The press conference also included:
- A proclamation of Hurricane Preparedness Week in Hawaii presented by the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency on behalf of Governor Josh Green.
- Presentation of the Dr. Arthur Chiu Award for Excellence in Hurricane Preparedness.
- A review of the 2024-2025 wet season and outlook for the 2025 dry season from NOAA.
- A preparedness message from the Hawaii Bicycling League.
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/app/2025/0...n-outlook/
