2025 Hurricane Season

[TomK]

Though in this case that cold water.. ie my 'too long

When people fight over a hurricane, bet on the hurricane.  It’s gonna do what it’s gonna do.

I'm not sure what you mean by that. Can you explain in a bit more detail? Hurricanes live and die not by what they do, but by outside forces.  By understanding what those forces are, you can ultimately predict what a hurricane will do. 

You seem to be anthropologising storms, although I suspect you didn't mean to.

[ironyak]

At the risk of "playing meteorologist", I'm not sure how much solace to take from that wedge of "cold" water as isn't it like 26 deg C that is warm enough to spawn and maintain hurricanes? That means all but the left-most color (violet?) on that graph is perfectly copacetic to Kiko which leaves little solid barrier indeed from the impacts from an Iselle-like, or even Dora-like (Lahaina fire), southerly storm path. Of course, only time will tell but hopefully such events remind us to not become overly complacent.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/


As for anthropomorphizing, nothing wrong with making some entreaties to the larger possible powers at play - maybe Edge can lead us all in some Amagoi (rainmaking) or Mizudome-no-mai (dance to stop the rain) as conditions require?

[MyManao]

At the risk of "playing meteorologist", I'm not sure how much solace to take from that wedge of "cold" water as isn't it like 26 deg C that is warm enough to spawn and maintain hurricanes?

Yeah, Yak, I don't know.. but would ask.. when the National Weather Service says..

From.. https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_T...atomy.html

ocean waters must be above 26 degrees Celsius (79 degrees Fahrenheit)...

I have to wonder, especially noting the temps on the map you posted, does that include 26c or are we actually talking 27c and above?

nothing wrong with making some entreaties to the larger possible powers at play

Calling all Maunas! Or is it too early for that?

[Durian Fiend]

a worst case scenario..

Is.. it always hits us.

And, god knows, I ain't a weatherman, nor do I play one in my fantasies like wannabes with YouTube or FB or whatever 'channels' but yes, a direct hit is always the worst case scenario. In fact, if we discount all other data points it's a sure thing.. a given.. run for your lives! Every single time!

Though in this case that cold water.. ie my 'too long for Tom's sensibilities' first post on the matter.. kinda tells a different story..

Durgin thinks it will be Iselle strength when it reaches our longitude, whether that be north, south or right on top of us. Too early to tell.  Again, it's path depends upon the developing trough.

[HiloJulie]

So, it appears, based upon all available provided links, coupled with all available comments as posted herewith, one could reasonably surmise that Tropical Storm/Hurricane Kiko will do one, or more, or even possibly all of the following:

1. Miss Hawaii Island by going to the south of the Island.
OR
2. Miss Hawaii Island by going to the north of the Island.
OR
3. Hit Hawaii Island directly.
OR
4. Fizzle out before it gets close to Hawaii Island.

Which, when you think about it, is about as accurate of a weather forecast for Hawaii Island as one can normally expect at any given time, especially when going out 5 to 7 plus days from now.

At any event, make sure to stock up on rice, toilet paper and SPAM before everyone else does!

In all seriousness, stay safe and informed and watch the weather reports. Hopefully, when this storm passes, there will be no need for anyone to toss us plebes rolls of paper towels.

['elepaio]

Always enjoyed watching them using budget for TP. . Full panic.

Wen plenty wata.

[Durian Fiend]

So, it appears, based upon all available provided links, coupled with all available comments as posted herewith, one could reasonably surmise that Tropical Storm/Hurricane Kiko will do one, or more, or even possibly all of the following:

1. Miss Hawaii Island by going to the south of the Island.
OR
2. Miss Hawaii Island by going to the north of the Island.
OR
3. Hit Hawaii Island directly.
OR
4. Fizzle out before it gets close to Hawaii Island.

Which, when you think about it, is about as accurate of a weather forecast for Hawaii Island as one can normally expect at any given time, especially when going out 5 to 7 plus days from now.

At any event, make sure to stock up on rice, toilet paper and SPAM before everyone else does!

In all seriousness, stay safe and informed and watch the weather reports. Hopefully, when this storm passes, there will be no need for anyone to toss us plebes rolls of paper towels.

Right.   We just need to keep in mind that very few tropical storms ever show modeling that indicates a potential path tracking over the islands.  Of those that do, thankfully even fewer actually end up threatening us in the end.

[leilanidude]

but yes, a direct hit is always the worst case scenario. In fact, if we discount all other data points it's a sure thing.. a given.. run for your lives! Every single time!
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With the prevailing use of sheet metal roofing and sub-standard building methods in many areas, running as far away from any building as you can, is probably a really good idea. Flying sheets of steel roofing is not something to be taken lightly.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Amagoi (rainmaking) or Mizudome-no-mai (dance to stop the rain) as conditions require?

I’ve got my conch shells, straw barrels, and dragon costumes at the ready, fortunately here in Hawaii with comfortable trade winds and not the 40 C heat wave gripping Honsho.  

ECMWF on September 2 shows Kiko looking for Hawaii getting warmer, getting warmer, but nothing yet definitive:

   

[ironyak]

MyManao - "weather.gov - ocean waters must be above 26 degrees Celsius" - I have to wonder, especially noting the temps on the map you posted, does that include 26c or are we actually talking 27c and above?

Above 26° C technically means anything past 26.0, so 26.01 would mean hurricanes and 25.99 would mean all's clear (that's how science works right? sharply defined boundaries around conveniently round numbers? ;) Then again, other sources say the water needs to be 80° Fahrenheit (27° Celsius) or 26.5 degrees Celsius so the whole thing seems murky and ill-defined (much like that wedge of "cold water" ;)

The Sep 1st filled contoured map now has even less of that extra/sufficiently cold water (the other versions make clear the coldest water shown is only 25.7° C) so the question becomes, is now the time to panic?