Hurricane season 2026

[MyManao]

Mark Morrissey just posted today on Substack..

As PaulW would say.. we got magic mountains!

Though, anyone been here long enough will remember saying any of that stuff was blasphemy hereabouts in the 'good ol' days'. They'd take you out and tar 'n feather your sorry ass for even mentioning the mountains have an effect on hurricanes.

[Chas]

Yes, despite one event (I can't remember when) where you watch the time lapse of the hurricane hitting Mauna Kea and immediately dying.

[kalianna]

So happy to be watching football instead of storm paths!

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

99-100% chance El Niño will last at least 6 more months:
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-enviro...n-for-you/

Hurricane Polo, off the coast of Mexico went from a Tropical Storm to a Cat 5 hurricane in 24 hours.  

Hurricane Polo especially surprised scientists. It grew from a tropical storm to a powerful Category 5 in less than 24 hours. Gabriel Vecchi studies hurricanes at Princeton University. He said, in his research, he's never seen anything like it.

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5980351

El Niño has caused hurricanes to form further to the south and west this year, according to Matthew Rosencrans, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s lead forecaster for the seasonal hurricane outlook, which “puts them in a place where they could make that westward run towards the Hawaiian islands”.

It also makes for a lagging storm season. Hurricane risks typically extend from July to the end of November but fall off into the later months. September and October are far busier in El Niño years.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/...icane-nolo


Nolo popped up quickly for us.  The paths for Lala and Nolo were unusual to say the least.  The busy Pacific storm season will most likely continue, with more surprises along the way.  We’re in uncharted waters.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

First the (relatively) bad news.
El Niño conditions are expected to stick around through this year and into early 2027.  Fortunately for Hawaii the recent hurricanes in the North Pacific have mostly developed near Mexico or Japan (typhoons).  It’s not over yet, and with warm water temperatures persisting our hurricane season could extend longer than normal.

CPC Probabilistic ENSO Strength Outlook
Updated: 10 September 2026
During September-November through November-January 2026-27, there is a
greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño.


The good news is there’s a 55% possibility that El Niño will dissipate by late spring 2027.  This a promising development considering some earlier discussions suggested El Niño could persist for several years like the 2014-2016 event.

CPC Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 10 September 2026
El Niño is expected to persist through March-May 2027, with a possible chance
(55%) of ENSO-neutral in April-June 2027.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a...ts-web.pdf

[kalianna]

At this point, my butt gets tight just seeing a new post on this thread.

[Durian Fiend]

I keep an eye on the El Nino index, currenly at 2.668. That's the amount in Celsius temperature the east pacific is above average.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...nino34.png

It's expected to peak at 3.7 to 4 in December.

[Durian Fiend]

https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-d...ane-record

"The 2026 eastern Pacific hurricane season now holds the record for the most cyclonic energy released...

...Tellingly, there have been 22 named storms, which is 5 fewer than 1992’s record of 27.

So, fewer storms, but stronger ones.

Broadly speaking, ACE is the power of a tropical or subtropical cyclone multiplied by how long it lasts.*

An average eastern Pacific season produces an ACE of 132.7, so 2026 is already more than twice as active as normal. The season still has six weeks to run..."

[Punatang]

It has been a lot.