08-08-2011, 04:40 PM
The map at the HVO Kilauea update page doesn't have complete topo lines for the newer flows, but you can kind of fill them in based on Puu Oo and the old terrain. Any flow that goes north will basically pond on the north side of Puu Oo, and if it builds up enough, head east-northeast until it eventually makes its way around Puu Oo and Kupaianaha and heads downhill to the southeast again. Conceivably, given that some of the early-stage flows went along the rift for a good distance, it could get out far enough to threaten Black Sands, but that would have to be a VERY large volume and unusual path.
For the most part, flows that threaten lower Puna (below Pahoa) would have to originate from farther down the rift, and those threatening the larger subdivisions would have to come from near the summit. The Ai Laau flow that Fern Forest, Hawaiian Acres, HPP, etc. are built on was a long-lasting eruption that came from the area of Thurston lava tube.
For the most part, flows that threaten lower Puna (below Pahoa) would have to originate from farther down the rift, and those threatening the larger subdivisions would have to come from near the summit. The Ai Laau flow that Fern Forest, Hawaiian Acres, HPP, etc. are built on was a long-lasting eruption that came from the area of Thurston lava tube.