09-21-2014, 06:16 AM
I'm not sure if Pahoa or any other settlement in lower Puna has enough momentum as a town to rebuild itself. It's just within the past several decades that Pahoa village has started to build up and become a "town". Even with the new shops and such, it's still sparsely settled as far as population density goes. It's only been lately that the new Long's, Malama Market and Burger King, etc., have arrived in the area.
A lot of the increase in population has been within the past decade, so those folks will not have dug in strong roots in the area yet. I suspect many of them would relocate if they could but a lot of their problems in relocating will be due to using up their available resources to move and build in Puna in the first place. I don't know what the lava will do to the home values, but I don't think it is going to improve them any. Which means the folks there have invested their savings into building homes and now no longer have the resources to do it again nor the ability to sell their existing homes to recoup their expenditures.
Depending on why folks choose to live in Puna will probably color their response to being isolated in Puna. If they chose to live there to be self sustainable and be off on their own, then they will probably stay put as long as they can and only occasionally venture out to get needed supplies. A weekly supply barge to and from Hilo might be enough to keep them going. However, if they chose to live in Puna due to it's lower costs, then those folks will be relocating as fast as they are able since the costs are going to go up due to it's isolation. Especially if they have to commute to Hilo for work.
I doubt there will be another "town" in lower Puna, or even Pahoa relocated. At least for quite some time. A small village might show up, although it will be at risk of lava so something mobile might be best, but with a dwindling population, there's no real reason to build bigger. If you study demographics, you can see how much population base each type of business requires. As it gets harder to get in and out of Puna, there's going to be a lot of folks who relocate to somewhere else because they have to. Some folks have to have a job to support themselves. What jobs will be left in Puna? With a two hour commute time as well as the new commute costs, how many of them will be able to afford to stay?
There also doesn't seem to be much thought on the idea of the continuance of lava after it crosses the highway and perhaps after it reaches the ocean. Traditionally, the lava has been a years long event and not just a one instance type of disaster. It took over half a decade for most of Kalapana to be covered over, didn't it? This is just the beginning.
Does anyone have any estimates of the drop in population of lower Puna if the highway does get cut off all the way to the ocean?
"I like yard sales," he said. "All true survivalists like yard sales."
Kurt Wilson
A lot of the increase in population has been within the past decade, so those folks will not have dug in strong roots in the area yet. I suspect many of them would relocate if they could but a lot of their problems in relocating will be due to using up their available resources to move and build in Puna in the first place. I don't know what the lava will do to the home values, but I don't think it is going to improve them any. Which means the folks there have invested their savings into building homes and now no longer have the resources to do it again nor the ability to sell their existing homes to recoup their expenditures.
Depending on why folks choose to live in Puna will probably color their response to being isolated in Puna. If they chose to live there to be self sustainable and be off on their own, then they will probably stay put as long as they can and only occasionally venture out to get needed supplies. A weekly supply barge to and from Hilo might be enough to keep them going. However, if they chose to live in Puna due to it's lower costs, then those folks will be relocating as fast as they are able since the costs are going to go up due to it's isolation. Especially if they have to commute to Hilo for work.
I doubt there will be another "town" in lower Puna, or even Pahoa relocated. At least for quite some time. A small village might show up, although it will be at risk of lava so something mobile might be best, but with a dwindling population, there's no real reason to build bigger. If you study demographics, you can see how much population base each type of business requires. As it gets harder to get in and out of Puna, there's going to be a lot of folks who relocate to somewhere else because they have to. Some folks have to have a job to support themselves. What jobs will be left in Puna? With a two hour commute time as well as the new commute costs, how many of them will be able to afford to stay?
There also doesn't seem to be much thought on the idea of the continuance of lava after it crosses the highway and perhaps after it reaches the ocean. Traditionally, the lava has been a years long event and not just a one instance type of disaster. It took over half a decade for most of Kalapana to be covered over, didn't it? This is just the beginning.
Does anyone have any estimates of the drop in population of lower Puna if the highway does get cut off all the way to the ocean?
Kurt Wilson
Kurt Wilson