10-11-2014, 04:20 PM
Not a scientist myself, but a weather enthusiast. The GFS is one of the most popular models for forecasting our atmosphere. It is useful for both large scale weather systems and tropical systems. It is not as useful as some of the other models for predicting the genesis of a tropical system.
SSTs are sea surface temperatures. They are an important part of the energy needed for a tropical storm to start and grow. 26C is the lower limit, but our 30C is plenty warm enough for whatever.
The ITCZ is the Intertropical Convergence Zone. It is a ring of convection that circles the planet near the equator. Pulses in the ITCZ move from east to west. It is always south of us.
ULL is and upper level low. A cold pool in the upper atmosphere. One of those is just northeast of us now, it's headed overhead Sunday/Monday. It'll destabilize our atmosphere and greatly enhance trade showers. Maybe even some lightning. Or graupel on the summit.
I don't know if that helps or not, but I do love to discuss the weather. BTW latest 18z wavewatch iii runs are out http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=hi
SSTs are sea surface temperatures. They are an important part of the energy needed for a tropical storm to start and grow. 26C is the lower limit, but our 30C is plenty warm enough for whatever.
The ITCZ is the Intertropical Convergence Zone. It is a ring of convection that circles the planet near the equator. Pulses in the ITCZ move from east to west. It is always south of us.
ULL is and upper level low. A cold pool in the upper atmosphere. One of those is just northeast of us now, it's headed overhead Sunday/Monday. It'll destabilize our atmosphere and greatly enhance trade showers. Maybe even some lightning. Or graupel on the summit.
I don't know if that helps or not, but I do love to discuss the weather. BTW latest 18z wavewatch iii runs are out http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=hi