10-17-2014, 02:54 AM
The envelope of probabilities is reduced closer to the actual current location of the event as certainty is most prevalent at the event location. As the storm moves closer to us, it's probability envelope contracts relative to our location while the probability envelope advances beyond us to the north west. The current 10% chance of us getting winds of 39mph are greater now because we still sit forward of the storms present position and it's future manifest path is not 100% certain. As the storm gets closer to us, more certainty will be displayed for our location relative to the event and we may very likely end up in the white region of the graph.