07-20-2016, 02:01 PM
This storm is very interesting. It has the potential to become a hurricane again, and it also has the potential to directly hit the island, this is what the NWS has to say:
...t's the timing of the anticipated turn that has implications for weather in Hawaii,
and the details surrounding that introduce a greater than normal
amount of uncertainty to the forecast, especially with Darby slowing
just east of the Big Island. Noteworthy that the HWRF indicates
that the turn will not occur until after passing the longitude of
the Big Island.
The intensity forecast continues to be complicated by what appears
to be competing environmental factors. Darby will be moving over
slightly warmer water the next couple of days, but this is still
expected to be counteracted by moderate southwesterly shear, with
SHIPS guidance indicating an increase in shear over the next 24
hours before relaxing again in 48 to 72 hours. The official
forecast responds by indicating little change in strength through 24
hours, slight strengthening in 36 hours, then remaining steady state
until weakening later in the forecast period. The weakening on days
4 and 5 is expected to occur as shear increases and Darby begins to
move over cooler waters. The official forecast lies close to the
IVCN consensus, which lies between the much stronger HWRF/GHM which
make Darby a hurricane again, and the weaker SHIPS/LGEM that
continue to indicate a slow but steady weakening...
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1607210259
ETA: bolded dramatic text.
...t's the timing of the anticipated turn that has implications for weather in Hawaii,
and the details surrounding that introduce a greater than normal
amount of uncertainty to the forecast, especially with Darby slowing
just east of the Big Island. Noteworthy that the HWRF indicates
that the turn will not occur until after passing the longitude of
the Big Island.
The intensity forecast continues to be complicated by what appears
to be competing environmental factors. Darby will be moving over
slightly warmer water the next couple of days, but this is still
expected to be counteracted by moderate southwesterly shear, with
SHIPS guidance indicating an increase in shear over the next 24
hours before relaxing again in 48 to 72 hours. The official
forecast responds by indicating little change in strength through 24
hours, slight strengthening in 36 hours, then remaining steady state
until weakening later in the forecast period. The weakening on days
4 and 5 is expected to occur as shear increases and Darby begins to
move over cooler waters. The official forecast lies close to the
IVCN consensus, which lies between the much stronger HWRF/GHM which
make Darby a hurricane again, and the weaker SHIPS/LGEM that
continue to indicate a slow but steady weakening...
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1607210259
ETA: bolded dramatic text.