07-24-2016, 04:33 AM
Weather forecasters who do this professionally like at NOAA are not just "second guessing and getting lucky"...
statistical weaknesses in the models...
forecast accordingly -- including the error boundaries.
Yes, exactly. These models, cones of uncertainty, and advisories are weather forecasts, not weather guarantees.
It's like when you drive home on Highway 130 weekday afternoons. Why is the traffic backed up? Why is it taking longer than you planned? Did you account for that '89 Nissan running out of gas and stopping in the middle of both southbound lanes this afternoon? Of the thousands of cars on the road, did you assess a high enough probability for that car's affect on all of the other cars?
“What we take to be true is what we believe. What we believe is based upon our perceptions. What we perceive depends on what we look for. What we look for depends on what we think. What we think depends on what we perceive. What we perceive determines what we believe. What we believe determines what we take to be true. What we take to be true is our reality." -David Bohm
statistical weaknesses in the models...
forecast accordingly -- including the error boundaries.
Yes, exactly. These models, cones of uncertainty, and advisories are weather forecasts, not weather guarantees.
It's like when you drive home on Highway 130 weekday afternoons. Why is the traffic backed up? Why is it taking longer than you planned? Did you account for that '89 Nissan running out of gas and stopping in the middle of both southbound lanes this afternoon? Of the thousands of cars on the road, did you assess a high enough probability for that car's affect on all of the other cars?
“What we take to be true is what we believe. What we believe is based upon our perceptions. What we perceive depends on what we look for. What we look for depends on what we think. What we think depends on what we perceive. What we perceive determines what we believe. What we believe determines what we take to be true. What we take to be true is our reality." -David Bohm
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves