09-20-2017, 08:07 PM
It's a long read and definitely on the scholarly side, but might be of interest to some. Earthquake prediction doesn't have a good record when carefully analyzed:
http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.p.../view/5350
This is from the full article:
"Despite over a century of scientific effort, the understanding of earthquake predictability remains immature. This lack of understanding is reflected in the inability to predict large earthquakes in the deterministic short-term sense. The Commission has identified no method for the short-term prediction of large earthquakes that has been demonstrated to be both reliable and skillful.
In particular, the search for precursors that are diagnostic of an impending earthquake has not yet produced a successful short-term prediction scheme. The Commission has critically reviewed the scientific literature on phenomena proposed as diagnostic precursors, including strain-rate changes, changes in seismic wave velocities, electromagnetic signals, changes in groundwater levels and flow, radon anomalies, and acoustic emissions. In well monitored regions, retrospective analyses of data collected prior to large earthquakes, including the L'Aquila mainshock of 6 April 2009, show no convincing evidence of diagnostic precursors."
Edited to replace the control characters in the quoted text.
http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.p.../view/5350
This is from the full article:
"Despite over a century of scientific effort, the understanding of earthquake predictability remains immature. This lack of understanding is reflected in the inability to predict large earthquakes in the deterministic short-term sense. The Commission has identified no method for the short-term prediction of large earthquakes that has been demonstrated to be both reliable and skillful.
In particular, the search for precursors that are diagnostic of an impending earthquake has not yet produced a successful short-term prediction scheme. The Commission has critically reviewed the scientific literature on phenomena proposed as diagnostic precursors, including strain-rate changes, changes in seismic wave velocities, electromagnetic signals, changes in groundwater levels and flow, radon anomalies, and acoustic emissions. In well monitored regions, retrospective analyses of data collected prior to large earthquakes, including the L'Aquila mainshock of 6 April 2009, show no convincing evidence of diagnostic precursors."
Edited to replace the control characters in the quoted text.