02-11-2018, 07:29 PM
MarkD - with respect, no you can't say things are a big worry just because they seem overdue from using simple statistics. They do not include the physical mechanisms that cause such events.
A made up example: a volcano erupts in 1902, 1904, 1906, 1908 and 1910. It then doesn't erupt until 1990 but then erupts in 1992, 1993, 1994, and, for the sake of argument, 1999. That means it erupted 10 times in one century, so the average is one eruption every ten years. In reality, it was quiet for 80 years.
Mauna Loa is going through a similar phase that it did in the early 2000s and then it seemed an eruption was about to happen, but it didn't. That doesn't mean it won't happen soon, but it does show that you cannot simply rely on statistics to predict an eruption or anything until you have a full understanding of the mechanisms behind the eruption. For instance, Kilauea has been erupting since 1984 and Mauna Loa hasn't erupted since then. Is there a connection? Yes, many scientists think there is.
Same for tsunamis - despite the average showing we're overdue for a large tsunami hitting the islands, we've seen earthquakes just as large as those that caused previous Hawaii tsunami disasters but that hasn't happened. Yet.
Statistics are useful for many things but can also mislead you.
A made up example: a volcano erupts in 1902, 1904, 1906, 1908 and 1910. It then doesn't erupt until 1990 but then erupts in 1992, 1993, 1994, and, for the sake of argument, 1999. That means it erupted 10 times in one century, so the average is one eruption every ten years. In reality, it was quiet for 80 years.
Mauna Loa is going through a similar phase that it did in the early 2000s and then it seemed an eruption was about to happen, but it didn't. That doesn't mean it won't happen soon, but it does show that you cannot simply rely on statistics to predict an eruption or anything until you have a full understanding of the mechanisms behind the eruption. For instance, Kilauea has been erupting since 1984 and Mauna Loa hasn't erupted since then. Is there a connection? Yes, many scientists think there is.
Same for tsunamis - despite the average showing we're overdue for a large tsunami hitting the islands, we've seen earthquakes just as large as those that caused previous Hawaii tsunami disasters but that hasn't happened. Yet.
Statistics are useful for many things but can also mislead you.