02-12-2018, 04:50 AM
From Tom "...you can't say things are a big worry just because they seem overdue from using simple statistics. They do not include the physical mechanisms that cause such events."
I'd appreciate an elaboration. Maybe I used the term statistics wrong. And OK, the basis for eruptions might be completely different than that for tsunamis.
For tsunamis the situation is pretty clear. Continental drift is fixed at a few inches a year. It is largely unvarying. If the 2 plates passing by each other along the west coast do not move for 20-30 years, they will move the appropriate distance (total--or close to total) when the big earthquake comes.
Here is a quote from the article that mentioned the tsunamis: "Hawaii experienced at least one damaging tsunami every 12 years between 1837 and 1975—but none causing any significant damage in the last 35 years."
The article was written in 2009. Make that now 44 years with no big tsunami to strike Hilo. Are we not statistically overdue?
I'd appreciate an elaboration. Maybe I used the term statistics wrong. And OK, the basis for eruptions might be completely different than that for tsunamis.
For tsunamis the situation is pretty clear. Continental drift is fixed at a few inches a year. It is largely unvarying. If the 2 plates passing by each other along the west coast do not move for 20-30 years, they will move the appropriate distance (total--or close to total) when the big earthquake comes.
Here is a quote from the article that mentioned the tsunamis: "Hawaii experienced at least one damaging tsunami every 12 years between 1837 and 1975—but none causing any significant damage in the last 35 years."
The article was written in 2009. Make that now 44 years with no big tsunami to strike Hilo. Are we not statistically overdue?