03-01-2018, 03:48 AM
For the eruptions between 1843 and 1984, the mean time between eruptions is 8.8125 years with a standard deviation of 6.3 years. This would give 8.3 years +/- 12.2 years expected time between eruptions with a 95% confidence level.
Caveat: the sample size of 17 times between the 18 eruptions is less than the 30 observations required to be statistically relevant, so the confidence level is kind of like the pirate code in this case - more a guideline than a reliable statistic. If anyone has the dates of the hundred and fifty or so prehistoric flow dates we can crunch some more reliable intervals. I'm sure someone at USGS HVO has done this at some point.
edit: initial calculation was off by just a bit with spread sheet, checked with statistical calculator - used n=16 instead of n=17.
Me ka ha`aha`a,
Mike
Caveat: the sample size of 17 times between the 18 eruptions is less than the 30 observations required to be statistically relevant, so the confidence level is kind of like the pirate code in this case - more a guideline than a reliable statistic. If anyone has the dates of the hundred and fifty or so prehistoric flow dates we can crunch some more reliable intervals. I'm sure someone at USGS HVO has done this at some point.
edit: initial calculation was off by just a bit with spread sheet, checked with statistical calculator - used n=16 instead of n=17.
Me ka ha`aha`a,
Mike
Me ka ha`aha`a,
Mike
Mike