08-23-2018, 11:50 PM
quote:
Originally posted by glinda
I find it interesting that some of the spaghetti models
https://www.cyclocane.com/lane-spaghetti-models/
now include independent projected paths for a second center that is still southeast of us. And, projected by them to stay to our east.
You mean Invest 95C?
"As if the Lane situation weren’t complex enough, a new disturbance about 300 miles to the east developed enough convection and spin on Thursday to be classified as Invest 95C. The disturbance formed along a stream of moisture associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This moisture channel will be directed squarely at the Big Island and Maui on Friday and Saturday, and 95C will likely move west-northwest along it toward the islands.
If 95C strengthens enough, the spin associated with it could interact with Lane and the higher terrain of the islands in such a way as to raise the odds of Lane’s moving toward Maui and merging with 95C. Such an interplay would be so unusual and complicated that we can’t expect forecast models to nail it with precision. More likely, 95C's main role will be to deliver an additional slug of moisture to an area that doesn’t need it..."