09-09-2018, 02:42 AM
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1809091502
"The track guidance remains
fairly tightly clustered, but has started to shift southward."
"The U.S. Air Force Reserves 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
will be conducting missions in and around Olivia later today. The
first mission, which will depart from Oahu shortly, will be making
direct measurements in Olivia. This will help us determine the
track, intensity, and size of the system. The second mission by the
53rd will sample the environment around Olivia to provide valuable
data for improved initialization of the forecast models that will
run later today. This is expected to improve the track and intensity
forecasts as Olivia approaches the Hawaiian Islands this week. Since
there is so much uncertainty for the moment in the initial
intensity, we will only weaken Olivia to a 65 kt hurricane for this
advisory."
Looks like they will have a better track forecast after some more data gathering today.
"The track guidance remains
fairly tightly clustered, but has started to shift southward."
"The U.S. Air Force Reserves 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
will be conducting missions in and around Olivia later today. The
first mission, which will depart from Oahu shortly, will be making
direct measurements in Olivia. This will help us determine the
track, intensity, and size of the system. The second mission by the
53rd will sample the environment around Olivia to provide valuable
data for improved initialization of the forecast models that will
run later today. This is expected to improve the track and intensity
forecasts as Olivia approaches the Hawaiian Islands this week. Since
there is so much uncertainty for the moment in the initial
intensity, we will only weaken Olivia to a 65 kt hurricane for this
advisory."
Looks like they will have a better track forecast after some more data gathering today.