2018 Hurricane Season

[knieft]

quote:

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Originally posted by TomK

As for the disagreement between apps, I guess it comes to which models they use. I tend to go more with what the meteorologists publish than what an app says. It would be good to know if the various apps actually tell you what models they are using.

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Yes, of course, it comes from the different models they use. I suspect those in the know know what the exact models the various apps use.

It doesn’t confuse me that different apps have difererent forecasts...that’s what I like about them. Kinda like I have three (Dark Sky, Ventusky, Windy) of the better (I assume) strands of the spaghetti map in much greater detail. Indeed, one can go to one of the apps and look for a match to their particular forecast as one of the strands on the spaghetti map...if one cares to do that.

Meteorologists publish their take on what the models predict, no? Taking an average of the models(?) and just playing up the uncertainty in general.

I suspect there is a forum somewhere where folks bet on the different models and how they pan out. I would love to see the data on how the models actually fare, where some are better at particular conditions, others better at other conditions. Likely there is an academic internet place where the models themselves are tracked, so to speak.

And very likely the mathematicians/coders associated with each model are constantly modifying the algorithms, especially if they bomb a couple few predictions.

The Euro model mentioned appears proprietary...? Maybe they all are, I don’t know.

But the euro model should get an app out!

Edit: Just read chunksters link. Much better than my suspicions:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp

Cheers,
Kirt