09-11-2018, 01:10 AM
quote:
Originally posted by ironyak
I appreciate this, but it still doesn't explain how the forecast track for the storm's center is decided for each update. Best single model for recent behavior, or some sort of average (and if so, how to choose what is averaged, and with what weighting)? Arcane minutiae likely given the scope of the error in forecasting, but still intriguing.
From the 5AM discussion:
"The official forecast is now near the center of the guidance envelope, and isclose to the multi-model consensus TVCE and GFEX. The along-trackdifferences between the GFS and ECMWF were reduced with the arrivalof the 06Z GFS, adding confidence to the short term forecast track,which indicates a slightly faster speed of motion than the previous forecast."
The current projected path hasn't changed in the past 12 hours, though the storm strength has been downgraded.
As for the mountains effects on tropical storms, one could argue from an unscientific perspective that they're a magnet for them, given that Lane veered from its track to approach us and Olivia is forecast to do the same.
The people studying these things for a living say that the mountains can help break up the storms when they strike, but the major players in their approaches and strengths are atmospheric ridges/troughs plus wind shear.