09-12-2018, 06:55 AM
Hurricane>>>Tropical Storm Olivia Wednesday Wrap Up
While Maui is battening down the hatches in Lahaina and Kaanapali Beach today (I spoke with one hotel manager who said they're treating the storm seriously, moving guests off of the first floor, and boarding up windows) Big Island should be in the clear.
As we catch our breath I thought it might be a good time to summarize some of what occurred over the course of a rather unpredictable storm. Olivia changed projected paths numerous times, it sped up, slowed it's forward momentum, and failed to lose strength as quickly as forecast.
Several Punaweb members provided insightful details about the conditions which caused these abrupt changes as they occurred:
TomK - great explanation and links about wind shear north and east of Hawaii, and dry atmospheric conditions
Carey - also offered good commentary on wind shear, water vapor, and reminding us how important it was to WATCH THE STORM. At no point did Olivia follow the forecast track. Watching it's movements, it could have easily reached Puna given a slightly different set of weather conditions. I especially found your post about Olivia entering warmer water (which would intensify the storm), while wind shear from the northwest moved in (diminishing it's strength), instructive and informative about the difficulties forecasters experience while trying to generate their models for us.
Chunkster - thanks for sharing your experience, background info, and resources (links) with us for The Chunkster Gold Standard ECMWF Model early on when Olivia was still far east of the islands. I followed the moderately concealed ECMWF forecast track on Wunderground daily throughout this past week. It's a good one.
Since the storm made frequent movements over the past 3 or 4 days, it would appear to me that the factors which caused it to move and change were also fluctuating. For instance, low pressure systems, moving high pressure systems, sweeping wind shear, and irregular patches of variable water temperature along the path of the storm all seemed to account for rapid changes, and the subsequent difficulty in providing reliable forecast projections.
On the other hand, Mauna Kea, Mauna, Loa, and Haleakala all remained in the same place throughout the storm, so I'm not sure how several immovable objects might have affected Olivia's variable swings and tilts and pivots, especially while the storm was still far from the islands. If anyone would like to offer their explanation, please do.
While Maui is battening down the hatches in Lahaina and Kaanapali Beach today (I spoke with one hotel manager who said they're treating the storm seriously, moving guests off of the first floor, and boarding up windows) Big Island should be in the clear.
As we catch our breath I thought it might be a good time to summarize some of what occurred over the course of a rather unpredictable storm. Olivia changed projected paths numerous times, it sped up, slowed it's forward momentum, and failed to lose strength as quickly as forecast.
Several Punaweb members provided insightful details about the conditions which caused these abrupt changes as they occurred:
TomK - great explanation and links about wind shear north and east of Hawaii, and dry atmospheric conditions
Carey - also offered good commentary on wind shear, water vapor, and reminding us how important it was to WATCH THE STORM. At no point did Olivia follow the forecast track. Watching it's movements, it could have easily reached Puna given a slightly different set of weather conditions. I especially found your post about Olivia entering warmer water (which would intensify the storm), while wind shear from the northwest moved in (diminishing it's strength), instructive and informative about the difficulties forecasters experience while trying to generate their models for us.
Chunkster - thanks for sharing your experience, background info, and resources (links) with us for The Chunkster Gold Standard ECMWF Model early on when Olivia was still far east of the islands. I followed the moderately concealed ECMWF forecast track on Wunderground daily throughout this past week. It's a good one.
Since the storm made frequent movements over the past 3 or 4 days, it would appear to me that the factors which caused it to move and change were also fluctuating. For instance, low pressure systems, moving high pressure systems, sweeping wind shear, and irregular patches of variable water temperature along the path of the storm all seemed to account for rapid changes, and the subsequent difficulty in providing reliable forecast projections.
On the other hand, Mauna Kea, Mauna, Loa, and Haleakala all remained in the same place throughout the storm, so I'm not sure how several immovable objects might have affected Olivia's variable swings and tilts and pivots, especially while the storm was still far from the islands. If anyone would like to offer their explanation, please do.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves